The Fight for Michigan

Under normal voting circumstances, Mitt Romney would easily be the frontrunner for winning the Michigan GOP primary.  However, for some ridiculous reasons, the Michigan legislature or GOP party, decided to make the primaries open voting.  Meaning anyone can vote in whichever primary you want.  So this situation makes it difficult 3-way race, one in which I would put Romney in 3rd place.

First let’s talk about the Democratic voters.  The first problem is that there is no real democratic contest in Michigan.  Barack and Edwards, from what I understand, are not even on the ballot.  So what do Democrats do?  They play strategically of course. 

And what is strategic for the Dems?  It is helping the Republicans nominate the most beatable candidate in November.  And who is that? 

Mike Huckabee.

So not only is Mike going to get the votes from the evangelicals, he is going to get the vote from most of the democratic voters who care enough to vote.  Let’s hope this is minimal.

Now, what about independents?  I have less of a problem with independents being allowed to vote in one of the primaries, however I still don’t prefer it.  Honestly, Republicans are choosing whom will represent them, not whom will represent the independents or democrats.  Naturally, independents are going to most likely break for McCain. So when we take into account McCain’s NH bump and the independents, it makes McCain very difficult to beat.

The one thing that Mitt has going for him is that none of the candidates know or understand Michigan like Mitt.  He is the native son and heir to the former Governor.   Mitt has been playing Michigan well, saying all the right things.  I think Mitt will be able to pull a lot of GOP voters and a significant amount of indy’s, especially those in the auto industry.

As of right now, I would think that Mitt is fighting an uphill battle, I would place him in third place.  However, I don’t think Mitt is dead with a loss here, if only because of Michigan’s open system.  Mitt is good enough to pull out this victory, but it will take a TON of work.

One final unrelated thought I had last night.  I have heard no speculation on whom McCain would choose as a running mate. I think the best strategic choice, despite the abject hatred, would be Mitt.  I could be nuts, but McCain/Romney is a strong and winnable ticket and it would set the GOP up to hold onto the Whitehouse 8 years from now.  Highly unlikely, but definitely something to consider.

It’s Mitt or the Democrat for Colin Cowherd

For those of you whom are big sports fans like myself, ESPN Radio Host Colin Cowherd said on his radio program today that he is voting for Mitt Romney and if he doesn’t win the nomination, he is voting for the Democrat nominee!  (I almost, not quite, but almost feel the same way).  He said this on the last segment of his radio show on Jan 9th.  He added that Huckabee doesn’t do it for him, Amen to that.

Mitt Romney has broad appeal across the moderate and conservative electorate.  What appeals to moderates about Mitt Romney is his vast success in the private sector and that he is by far the best candidate on the economy.

These issues are easily Mitt’s strongest points and for the longest time, I have wondered why Mitt didn’t just base his entire campaign on the Economy, success, and change.  No other candidate has the record of change that Mitt has.  Somehow, Mitt’s advisors were way off and told him to run to the right on social issues and put his focus on that.  Mitt should have been promoting the economy constantly.  I think he now recognizes this and will push hard on these issues.   Mitt is far and away a better candidate than any other GOP candidate; he just needs to show the rest of the country what many of us already know.

It’s ALIVE!! Hillary Returns from the Dead

Being a Mitt Romney supporter, I thought for sure that this morning I would be writing either about a victorious Mitt Romney or another Silver Medal Mitt Romney. But some events are just too incredible to be ignored by writing a piece about a largely expected 2nd place finish for my guy. 

The Hillary Clinton victory last night was nothing short of stunning.   Barack had all the momentum and all the excitement following a big Iowa win.  And as the day progressed and turnout was way larger than expected, it appeared to me and many others that Barack was going to win this thing in a massive landslide, I even thought he could break 50% of the vote.

But Hillary’s machine did the unthinkable.  They worked their tails off and got people out to vote for her.  Some were probably swayed by the tears on Monday, others of her supporters saw that she needed all the help she could get and made sure to get out and vote. It was a really stunning victory.

So what do I take from all this.  I take that GOP is in big, big trouble in November.  Yesterday I was saying that I was torn between the dems because on the one hand continued Hillary loses gets her out of the race and we are done with the Clinton’s forever (what a great day that will be) on the other hand I figured that Obama was the tougher general election candidate and could appeal to more people; thus it was in my interest for Hillary to win the nomination.

Now, I don’t think Obama appeals necessarily to a larger subset, rather I think he appeals more for a different subset.  Obama appeals to the idealist, to the young – i.e. people who don’t vote. Whereas Hillary appeals to the older, career oriented crowds.  People who do vote.  A lot of people who would vote for Hillary due to her experience and her (seemingly, though I don’t buy it) more moderate views would likely consider switching over to a McCain, Romney, or Giuliani in the general if the extremely inexperienced Barack were nominated.

Conversely, Hillary would still get the vast majority of youth voters (because they nearly always vote democratic) that support Obama, her only concern is simply getting them to care enough to actually show up at the polls (which they won’t do).   Additionally, Hillary has the best organization of all the candidates and has nearly all the powers-that-be in DC behind her.  She will be a tough one to beat.

Looking at it this way, if Mitt really wants to be President it may be better for him to finish 2nd in the nomination and run again in 2012.  I still firmly believe that Mitt is the best person to be President, why waste that in an unwinnable year (or so it appears). 

About 2 hours to go in NH

Well, folks, we have about two hours until the last of the precincts are scheduled to close in New Hampshire.  All reports are that it has been an historical day with record turn out.  The Barack explosion is continuing, and this may turn out to be good news for Mr. Mitt Romney.  So what are we hearing now?

Not much yet.  Here is some insight from Marc Ambinder:

EXIT POLLS: GOP: 3 in 10 independents are GOP voters…many late deciders… McCain more electable than Romney…33% say economy is biggest issue followed by Iraq (22%) …. Democrats: 46% made up minds without last week.. 4 in 10 are independents…. HRC’s favorability: 73%; Obama’s: 84%; … 36% say economy is top issue….

Basically, so we have 30% of the people that voted GOP are independents.  This is right about the max level that Mitt can survive, however there are some internal reports that I have heard from the Romney camp that indicate that he has closed the indy gap with John McCain.  If this is so, and Mitt can hold onto the GOP base, he has a great shot to win tonight.

I am also hearing that some inside the Romney camp are expecting him to finish betwee 32% and 35%.  Adding that they expect to do no worse than 1.5% behind McCain or as well as +5% over McCain.   If they are right, then there really is little bad news for Mitt tonight, even if he does lose.  Coming in behing 1.5% while on an upswing of momentum should be just fine for him to head into Michigan.

Looking at all the polls from today, I still refuse to concede anything or to get my hopes up, I had a rough enough night last Thursday.  So I personally am keeping expectations as low as possible, but I must admit, that I am cautiously optimistic.  If you are in NH and haven’t voted yet, get out there and vote for Mitt!!!

P.S.  I may be crazy, but I would not be surprised to see Barack over 50% when it is all said and done tonight.  You heard it hear first.

First Votes of New Hampshire Counted

At Midnight the small town of Dixville Notch, total of 17 voters, cast their ballots at Midnight in New Hampshire. There were 12 Independents, 3 GOP, 2 Dems. Fox notes that they do not have a particularly good record at predicting the results of the state– should I be hoping that McCain is leading? I think not. (Looking at the ballot counting, I assume the blue ballots are Dems and the Pink are GOP.  They look fairly split.) Here they are:

GOP:

1. McCain 4 votes
2. Romney 2 votes
3. Giuliani 1 vote

Dems:

1. Obama 7 votes
2. Edwards 2 votes
3. Richardson 1 vote

Note that Hillary got no votes, OUCH!

Thank goodness for Mitt that this is not usually a good indicator.  Whew!  VOTE FOR MITT NEW HAMPSHIRE