11 Day’s Out, It’s All Over

It is probably a bit pre-mature, but the presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain might as well be over.  I have been contemplating writing this post for the last two weeks, but haven’t been convinced.  Well, today I am.  We are 11 days out of the election, less than two weeks and Barack’s lead is anywhere between 3 points and 11 points nationally, he is safely winning all the states that Kerry won in ’04, is comfortably ahead in a few states that Bush won in ’04, and is within the margin of error (+/-) in many states that have gone GOP in the past few elections.   There is not one state that Kerry won, even those considered “swing” states, that McCain has a chance to win. Don’t believe me?  Let’s review two “blue swing states”: Minnesota: O=56%, M=41% – 15 point lead and Pennsylvania: O= 51%, M= 41% – 10 point lead. Ouch!

Every “swing-state” is a state that went Red in ’04 and some should be solidly red. McCain is struggling mightily in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, and Colorado. Even in states like North Dakota and Montana there has been talk of Barack making a push. Are you kidding? McCain is entirely playing defense and no offense. This is not a winning strategy, in order to win the election he will pretty well have to win each of these states; at most he could lose one of them and perhaps still pull out the win. That is not going to happen.

So why is it so bad? Well, the first reason is the economy. People blame the Bush administration and by default McCain. They shouldn’t (solely) blame either. Blame falls on everyone, but especially congressional democrats who refused to address the mortgage issue when GOP congressmen were warning of an inevitable collapse. But Democrats disagreed and said the system was good because it was getting poor people into home ownership. Well we have seen how well that worked out. But McCain has failed to get that message out, he has failed to spread the word that he called for an investigation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 2 years ago. Sure much of this is the media’s fault as they refuse to seriously cover any news that may harm Obama (just look at how they have ignored the Ayers story, if that were reversed and McCain were the culprit, McCain would have been crucified). But it is also McCain’s fault. He has been awful getting information out and going on the attack. I know he doesn’t prefer that kind of politics, but it is necessary for important issues. Sarah Palin has been effective, but what can a veep do?

The other reason that McCain is losing so bad is that he is a terrible, terrible candidate. What were the GOP thinking nominating this guy. I still don’t know anyone who actually wants HIM to be President. Most people are voting for him because they don’t want Obama or because they like Palin. McCain is a terrible speaker, has no energy, doesn’t have much a platform and no message, and isn’t terribly intelligence (I am not saying he is dumb, but he is no smarter than the average American). If the GOP had nominated Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani we would probably winning or tied with Obama. The only serious GOP candidate that would have been a bigger disaster is Mike Huckabee.

A friend of mine made a great point the other day, as he has paid attention to the campaign he hears Obama speak and notices that Obama has a message. It may not be a message of much substance, but he has a message and sticks to it. That is change and hope and when he discusses his specific policy ideas he ties them all into change and hope. When he hears McCain there is no message. McCain is all over the map. Thus, there is nothing memorable about McCain, there is not one thing where people can think of McCain and think of him as President. His advisors have not handled him well. Both Karl Rove and James Carville admitted that in their elections as advisors to Bush and Clinton respectively, one of their most important responsibilities were to keep the candidate on message. Remember people don’t care about policy and specific ideas they care about what ever candidate makes them feel good, moves them, and builds trust. That’s largely it. McCain hasn’t done it in the least.

The silver lining to all of this for me is that I can’t stand either candidate. I am voting for McCain, but while holding my nose. On Tuesday night, November 4th, when CNN announces that they project Barack Obama as the next President of the United States at 9:42 pm EST (before the polls even close in the West), I will shrug my shoulders, go back to watching “Scrubs” and begin fasting and praying that the American people, and especially GOP voters, will be smart enough to nominate Mitt Romney in 2012. I still can’t believe that the GOP was stupid enough nominate McCain over Romney, amazing.

Is Biden Sabotaging Obama?

It is no secret that Joe Biden is a loose canon and often makes statements without thinking them through. While he is a smart guy, he is also an idiot in many ways. Once he gets going on a rant it is hard to slow him down. I think this is what happened yesterday when Biden said that Obama was going to be faced with an international crisis in his first six months. Consider his statements:

“Mark my words,” Biden told donors at a Seattle fund-raiser Sunday night.

“It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America.

“Watch. We’re going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.

“And he’s going to need help . . . to stand with him. Because it’s not going to be apparent initially; it’s not going to be apparent that we’re right.”

What on earth is Joe thinking? If this election turns back to a National Security election and people start believing that there will be a major incident involving our enemies in the first six months, there will be a substantial shift towards John McCain. THe people still trust republicans, and specifically McCain, on security issues.

When people read Biden’s statements many of them will ask themselves if Obama is prepared and ready to handle it. We are talking about the least qualified and prepared Presidential candidate since 1860, if not in America’s history and his running mate is talking about a major crisis in the first six months?? This can only hurt Obama and eat away at his support.

The McCain campaign has already jumped on these statements and are using them to instill doubt in the voters and say that Obama is not ready for this high office. Good for McCain, I would do the same thing, regardless of how true the claims may or may not be.

Joe Biden is a drag on the Obama ticket and was a terrible choice. Fortunately for Obama, people rarely vote based on the Veep candidate, the GOP is the weakest it has been in decades, and Obama has a large lead just two weeks out. Barack will win the election handily, but it will be in spite of Biden.

Comrade Bush

 

Hugo Chavez, the dictator of Venezuela, referred to President Bush as Comrade Bush and said Bush has moved “left” in the financial crisis. Normally, I would defend the President and his actions, I can’t say that I have minded the Bush administration and generally feel he has done a better job than most give him credit for.  But in this instance Hugo Chavez is absolutely right!

President Bush moved left like I never thought possible.  First, fully supporting spending 700 billion dollars to bailout mortgage companies, then announcing that the federal government will buy majority shares of private banks!

Is he kidding? What have we become as a nation?  Is our society and culture so reactionary that we will compromise the very founding principles that made us great?  Apparently so. But if I wanted to live in Venezuela or Russia I would move there.  But I don’t, I want to live in America, moreover I want to live in a place where I can work hard, earn money to support my family and live a comfortable life, and have the freedom to worship, play, work, speak, and move the way I want to. But the actions of our government over the last few years continually erode those rights. 

But, you may be saying, what does the nationalization of banks have to do with the way you want to live?  Well, it is yet another step towards socialism and government control.  Government, no matter where you live, loves its power and will rarely relinquish it but often seeks to expand it.  Does anyone honestly think that the continued forays of the government in to the private markets and our citizens pocketbook is going to slow down any time soon?  Especially considering the legislature will continue to be controlled by America’s socialist party (Democrats) and will soon have the most left of their Senators as her President?  No chance.

And that is the most frustrating aspect of this whole move by Bush to begin nationalizing these banks. He came out and said that he wasn’t a fan of this action but felt it was necessary to ensure stability in the banking structure of America and then he promised that this is a short term nationalization and that the government will sell the shares back to the companies when stablized.  Does he think we are stupid?  Do any of you believe him? Not me.  And it is not that I don’t believe him per se, it is that the decision will not be his.  If this occured in his second year as President, I would be more inclined to believe him. Why? because he would be the one to decide on the action of selling the shares a year or two down the road.  But he has three months left in office.  So unless he sells those shares before January 20th, they aren’t getting sold anytime soon.  Do you think Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, or Harry Reid will sell them?  No chance.  They have little faith in the free market, support government control, and have no desire to relinquish power.

How dare our government take such irresponsible and reactionary actions? In any free society and market there are going to be ups and downs.  Major collapses seem to occur every 10-15 years (see 2000 and the Tech collapse) and every time our market pulls out of it and becomes stronger (see the Bush economy around 2006).  The free market is like nature: unpredictable, wild, efficient, successful, and prone to forest fires and disasters.  Additionally, just like a forest fire in nature is initially devastating to the forest, it is always a net positive.  The forest grows back healthier and stronger.  The market is the same way.  A fire is often necessary to get rid of the chaff and strengthen the economy, except in this instance, our government decided to use taxpayers money…MY MONEY… to keep the chaff in the market.  It will be a disaster, everything the governement touches usually does.