Hillary’s Not Dead Yet

At the beginning of this election campaign back in early 2007 the general consensus was that since there was no V.P. running on the GOP ticket, the natural incumbent candidate would naturally be Hillary Clinton.  As a result, it was thought that she would have an easy time through the Democratic primary; easily casting aside a young, inexperienced, one-term senator and a washed-up, old hat (John Edwards).  While it would be the Republicans in an all out brawl taking their race to the convention.

Well, it turns out that conventional wisdom was off, way off.    The GOP resolved itself fairly quickly and bloodless (despite whatever ridiculous reason Huck has for staying in), a result I largely attribute to Rudy Giuliani’s worst run campaign in the history of Earth.    

Whereas the Democrats are embroiled in a big mess of a fight that to many appears to be clearing up with Barack Obama the apparent front runner.   There are many pundits and bloggers out there today, following another big Obama win in Wisconsin, who are saying that Obama has it all but locked up and the Clinton’s are done.  Those statements may be a bit premature.

We now have two weeks before the next set of primaries occur when Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont vote.  There is a lot than can happen between now and then.  First off, if there is one thing we all have learned is to never say the Clinton’s are dead, until they are dead.  Second, three of the states appear to favor Hillary over Barack, one of them is a push.

The RCP averages for Texas and Ohio, the two big prizes, have Hillary with a fairly comfortable lead in Ohio and a small lead in Texas.   Considering the momentum Barack has had for the last month and the near god-like following he has, it is amazing Hillary continues to do as well as she has.  These next two weeks are huge for her and if she manages them right and keeps Bill on a leash she may come out March 4th alive and well. 

Certainly the two smaller states, Vermont and Rhode Island, would logically be Hillary states.  While this is far from guaranteed (Barack won Connecticut), those would be two nice wins, but Hillary desperately needs at least a split in the big two.  Both Texas and Ohio seem like a more natural Hillary fit.   My impression of Ohio is that it is a good cross-section of America with people of all backgrounds and a pretty educated populace.  My guess is that Ohio voters are more apt to vote on issues and pragmatism than on emotion.  If this is the case, Hillary would be the choice due to her (seemingly) more moderate positions and her somewhat (though questionable) better qualifications, not to mention the Clinton machine behind her. 

Texas is harder to judge.   I could see this being a very friendly Obama state, especially in east Texas where there are more black voters.  However, it seems that hispanics are breaking for Hillary and if they break in a large section towards her, it could give her the election.  Ultimately, east Texas will go for Barack, west Texas for Hillary (including San Antonio) with Houston and Dallas largely split, but I thing (as of now) Houston will go for Barack and Dallas too close to call. 

The wildcard is this two week break.  The Clinton’s will be ruthless.  They will throw everything at Barack to try to bring him down.  If Barack bites and tries to get into a mud war with Hillary, it could be to his demise.   Barack has created this scary and troubling god-like following by appearing to rise above the traditional rancor and backbiting common in campaigns.  No person in the history of American politics (I’m exaggerating) has gone further while saying nothing than Barack Obama.  His support is almost purely an emotional support and emotions are fickle and change with the wind.  If he gets himself muddy and stoops to the Clinton’s level, he could lose that fire and his bubble may burst.  

The things that undecided voters need to consider as they decide between the two are electability, who will be the best for the country, and can you imagine what their Presidency will amount to. 

I am not a Democrat and will not vote for either in the general election, so allow me as a Republican to answer these questions from my perspective.  First, Hillary is going to have the toughest time being elected.  Not only is she despised by half of the population from the get-go, if she ends up pulling out the nomination, she will have done it in some manner that will deeply alienate many true Obama supporters.  I would not be the least bit surprised if many of those voters, just to spite Hillary, voted for McCain; many democrats view him as a strong moderate Republican that they can live with.

The question of who will best for the country is difficult, but I would argue that Hillary would be.  She is more moderate on the War than Obama, understands economics better, and is generally more qualified.  I also think that both Obama and Hillary would do decent jobs representing the U.S. to the world.

As for imagining them as President and analyzing what kind of President they would be, I strongly give Obama the edge here (this may seem contradictory with the previous paragraph).  Hillary is a bad person, her husband is a bad person.  She treats people poorly and is enamored with power; she has no moral compass whatsoever.  Despite her more acceptable policy stances and experience, a Hillary presidency would be one term and mediocre.  She would ultimately compare with Bush-41 in the Presidential rankings.   Obama on the otherhand seems to be an honorable and honest person.  I think he respects the office of the Presidency and would not do anything to shame it.  He has a lot of potential.  His presidency will either be a big success, putting him in the top 15 all time or a huge disaster.  If I were a Democrat I would take the risk with Obama.

Mitt to Endorse McCain

Mitt Romney is set to endorse John McCain later today.   I can’t say that I am either disappointed or happy about it.  I am more indifferent, except for that fact that it makes me respect Mitt even more, he was man enough to put aside the vast differences and the hostile rancor that occurred between the two men in the campaign and do what he thinks best for the entire country. 

Mitt also is releasing his delegates and asking that they be allotted to McCain, if they all do indeed go there, McCain will only be 78 delegates shy (depending on whose count you go by) of the nomination. 

So a couple of personal thoughts about this, first as I mentioned above, it shows how much of an honorable man Mitt is.  I hate to be cynical (not really), but I highly doubt that McCain would ever have endorsed Mitt if the situation was reversed.  Even if Mitt were the only candidate left, I think McCain would have kept quiet.   McCain is a stubborn and bitter man (but that doesn’t disqualify him from being President).   So while Mitt is man enough to endorse McCain for the good of the Party, I am not there yet, I almost think a McCain loss will be better for the country and the party in the long run; but we will see how things progress as we get closer to November.

The second thing is why I am happy about this endorsement…it didn’t go to Huckabee.  If Mitt had endorsed Huckabee, I could have lost all respect for him.  Huckabee is so vastly underqualified and unacceptable, that I would have been completely baffled by such a move.  So while I am not thrilled with McCain as our standard-bearer, he is a far sight better than Huck. 

I also understand why Mitt is doing it.  It will keep his name in the news and will further make him appear to be the 2012 front runner should McCain lose.  Also, in the event that Huckabee was planning to drop out today (which I doubt), Mitt stole some of that thunder (I doubt this had any effect on Mitt’s decision, but hence is my despisal for Huckabee; I wish it were so.).

So more power to you Mitt, keep making wise political decisions and setting yourself up for 12 or 16.  We need ya.

Is a Democrat Win in ’08 the Best Outcome for the GOP?

As a life-long Republican, I have often sworn that I would never vote for a Democrat under any circumstances.  However, now I am starting to re-think that position.   You see, the GOP nominated (or is close to nominating) John McCain to be the party standard bearer, and it seems to me that a victory in ’08 for McCain would do more harm than good for the party. 

John McCain has been moving to the left ideologically since the 80’s.  Back in his early days with the Party, he was a consistent conservative, but today his is spotty at best.  So what does the party want?  A President from their party who will essentially push for the same legislation as Hillary Clinton; legislation that they will have to be grudgingly pass?  Or do they want a Democratic President pushing that same legislation and be able to fight it and defeat it and establish itself as the standard for conservative values, families, and capitolist economics?  I would submit that the latter is the best outcome.  

As I mentioned in a previous piece, when I look at what a McCain presidency would look like, I see more war, a bad economy, and a government that maintaines the current level of inefficiency and ineptitude.   It is not that I think McCain is a bad guy, has terrible ideas, or would even be a bad President, it is that McCain would be mediocre at best; he would be no better than previous no-name Presidents that we can’t remember like Franklin Pierce or Calvin Coolidge.   Well, I am no fan of mediocrity, let the Democrats produce mediocre Presidents like Carter and Clinton.  The GOP needs to stand excellence and only accept excellence, but like they did with Bob Dole, they have chosen to throw in the towel, to pick the “next” guy, instead of the best guy. 

Thus, I am convinced (as of now) that the best thing for the GOP is to have Hillary or Barack win in November as difficult as that may be to accept.  McCain will not excite anyone and will do nothing to build the Party, while a Hillary or Barack presidency will remind Republicans why they are Republican in the first place.   A Democrat in the White House will rile the base so much, that in 2012 the Republicans will (hopefully) be smart enough to nominate a the best person, not just the next guy on the block (although both of those could be the same person, Mitt Romney).   So as of now, I say full speed ahead for the Democrats, I will not cast a vote for you in November, but that does not mean I will cast a vote for McCain either. 

So you McCainiacs or even just Conservatives and Republicans who vehemently disagree with me have a lot of convincing to do between now and November; get crackin.  And let your boy McCain know that Huckabee is a deal breaker as a running mate.  I want Huck nowhere near the White House.   If he is on the ticket, I may well end up actually casting my vote for the Democrat. 

Mitt’s Out, What now?

What a fun and exciting Presidential campaign this has been.  The GOP had a solid group of strong candidates running for the nomination this year. For me Mitt Romney was the best candidate for President in a long time, he just wasn’t able to pull it through.  When I started this blog I did not intend it to be as Mitt and election heavy as it ended up being.  Now that Mitt is out I have two questions that need to be answered: Where does Mitt go from here?  Where does this blog from here.

Well, the first question is the more difficult one.  Mitt is going to stay involved in politics in some way or another and I ultimately think that he will run again in 2012 if a Democrat wins the Presidency.  Between now and then I could see Mitt becoming head of the RNC or going to work for a conservative think tank.  But most importantly, he will devote a lot of time to his family.  Undoubtedly, he missed a lot with them over the last year and a half, he will want to make that up. 

So where does Dry Fly go.  Well, we are going back to the original idea for this site in the first place, with a few modifications.  One thing I learned working on this blog was that people don’t care about non-U.S. issues, not one bit.  However, that is where my passion lies, I love international affairs and politics, so I am going to write about issues of great importance or that are just interesting that are international in nature.  Also, I am going to follow closely the Presidential race, but I am not endorsing a candidate yet.  Obviously, I lean towards McCain, but he has a lot of convincing to do and some will depend on his running mate (it better not be Huckabee!).   Finally, we will write about general U.S. political issues.   The hope is that it will continue to be a place where those of you who check it out regularly will continue to come and also that we will provide interesting writing on a variety of subjects.  To this end, I am looking for 2-4 more people who would be interested in blogging here.  If you are interested in what it entails, email me at dryflypolitics@gmail.com and send along a writing sample.

One more thing, we will keep you up to date on Mitt and his doings, especially if he stays involved in politics.  Personally, I am praying that he runs in 2012. (By the way, you don’t need to be a Mitt fan to blog here. I am taking down the Mitt banner next week, I am keeping it up through the weekend as my own personal tribute).

Why Mitt is Staying In: 2012

2012. 

I think we all know that there is really no logical reason for Mitt (or Huckabee for that matter) to stay in the 2008 race.  McCain has the nom all but locked up.  So why on earth is Mitt hanging around? 

He says (and must say) that he is sticking around because he wants to provide conservatives a candidate to get behind and give voters a choice.  Fine, that is what he is suppossed to say, but I don’t buy it.  Mitt is a business man and easily the smartest person in the race.  He understands principles of investment and when to cut your losses, seemingly the time to do that is now. 

But there is another, more logical, motivating factor that I think is in play behind the scenese and that is 2012.    Mitt and Huckabee are in a race for 2nd place now and 2nd place can set one of them up as the early frontrunner for the GOP in 2012, after McCain gets it handed to him in November by the Democrat.  You see, the GOP has knack for nominating the “next” guy in the GOP and that next guy is often the runner-up in the previous election. Thus, if Mitt finishes in 2nd he is the natural front-runner four years from now. 

Now many may say that if Mitt drops out now he still finishes in second because he has more delegates and you are right.  But we are dealing with the realities of public perception.  The public doesn’t care about delegate counts, they care about last man standing.  So that is why Mitt needs to be one of the last two standing.

However, I think the best Mitt can do is finish in a tie for second because Huckabee will not drop out until McCain has crossed the delegate threshold for the nomination.  Huckabee is playing both the 2nd place game and is trying to basically force McCain into making him the veep candidate.  Thus, what I see happening is the day after McCain crosses the delegate line, both Mitt and Huck drop out of the race because the race is over.   Thus neither Mitt nor Huck can legitimately claim sole 2nd place.

So Mitt goes from there to do whatever it is he wants to do and Huckabee pleads for a spot on the McCain ticket.  Huckabee gets the veep slot and proceeds to lose to the dem in November and looks like a loser but still not as bad as McCain and decides to run in 2012.

Huckabee claims to be the next in line in the GOP due to being the veep candidate, while Mitt comes in and claims the same due to his 2nd place tiebreaker-the delegates- and the fact that he performed well in all parts of the country in 2008.   Thus, very early, in spring 2011, the party faithful gravitate towards Romney as the next guy, both because he doesn’t alienate huge swaths of the party and because he can win outside the South. 

So right now it is all about 2012, nothing about 2008.

UPDATE:  Romney Suspends Campaign

How about that, two days after South Carolina, I wrote about why Fred Thompson may stay in the race and motivation for doing so, no more than about 5 hours after writing that Fred dropped out.  Today I write as to why Romney would stay in, despite thinking he shouldn’t, and sure enough, about 5 hours later he drops out.  Maybe I should write about why McCain should drop out tomorrow and see what happens