The Fight for Michigan

Under normal voting circumstances, Mitt Romney would easily be the frontrunner for winning the Michigan GOP primary.  However, for some ridiculous reasons, the Michigan legislature or GOP party, decided to make the primaries open voting.  Meaning anyone can vote in whichever primary you want.  So this situation makes it difficult 3-way race, one in which I would put Romney in 3rd place.

First let’s talk about the Democratic voters.  The first problem is that there is no real democratic contest in Michigan.  Barack and Edwards, from what I understand, are not even on the ballot.  So what do Democrats do?  They play strategically of course. 

And what is strategic for the Dems?  It is helping the Republicans nominate the most beatable candidate in November.  And who is that? 

Mike Huckabee.

So not only is Mike going to get the votes from the evangelicals, he is going to get the vote from most of the democratic voters who care enough to vote.  Let’s hope this is minimal.

Now, what about independents?  I have less of a problem with independents being allowed to vote in one of the primaries, however I still don’t prefer it.  Honestly, Republicans are choosing whom will represent them, not whom will represent the independents or democrats.  Naturally, independents are going to most likely break for McCain. So when we take into account McCain’s NH bump and the independents, it makes McCain very difficult to beat.

The one thing that Mitt has going for him is that none of the candidates know or understand Michigan like Mitt.  He is the native son and heir to the former Governor.   Mitt has been playing Michigan well, saying all the right things.  I think Mitt will be able to pull a lot of GOP voters and a significant amount of indy’s, especially those in the auto industry.

As of right now, I would think that Mitt is fighting an uphill battle, I would place him in third place.  However, I don’t think Mitt is dead with a loss here, if only because of Michigan’s open system.  Mitt is good enough to pull out this victory, but it will take a TON of work.

One final unrelated thought I had last night.  I have heard no speculation on whom McCain would choose as a running mate. I think the best strategic choice, despite the abject hatred, would be Mitt.  I could be nuts, but McCain/Romney is a strong and winnable ticket and it would set the GOP up to hold onto the Whitehouse 8 years from now.  Highly unlikely, but definitely something to consider.

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8 Comments

Filed under Election 2008, John McCain, Michigan, Mitt Romney, Politics, Republicans

8 responses to “The Fight for Michigan

  1. John Galt

    I don’t see mitt winning michigan. I am a mitthead by all means. However I agree. It is an open primary and democrats are already rallying around Huckabee.

    mccain will likely get a bump and his best friends the press will help him a lot. it was probably all the attacking by the press who had endorsed mccain in new hampshire that made the difference for mccain in new hampshire.

    he faces an uphill battle there. Does he have the right stuff for michigan, yes, it is possible, yes. I am not going to get my hopes up though. I don’t think he needs to win Michigan however. If he did, his chances shoot way up, but given the wide openness of the race, the lack of any momentum and the base’s disatisfaction with both huck and mccain who will if either win will become very scrutinized on their way to Florida thus providing yet another window for mitt to step in later.

    So I predict a mccain or huckabee victory in michigan. i could even see mitt coming in third place. mitt has a chance however and it would be great to be suprised of course, but given the open primary the cards are stacked against him.

    but what he needs to do is fight for the conservative vote. this will give him reason to stay in if he can win the conservative vote there.

  2. John Galt

    Your point about mccain romney is a good one. romney is strong with those types that hate mccain. if mccain picks huck, they will both be loathed by the conservaitve base. if mccain picked romney, that ticket is acceptable to a lot of people I think and it sets romney, a conservative up to run for prez in the future. is ee the logic as well. probably not likely though. mccain will pick plawlenty probably.

  3. liz

    I can’t see Mr. Romney being VP. I daresay he would turn that down, and rightfully so. He would be better suited CEO of a car company than helping McCain or heaven forbid Huckabee implement socialist policies. Especially after seeing how petty and rude they can be when they perceive themselves in a position of strength.

  4. Canticle of Deborah

    Mitt Romney should not be the VP candidate on a losing ticket, and McCain and Huck will surely lose.

    Mitt will need to take over as GOP Chair to rebuild a devastated Party.

  5. DR J

    Take a look at this:

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/2713/87225/55/434206

    It would be very ironic if the Democrats threw Mitt a life jacket and he comes back to beat them in November. If he can get a little traction in Michigan, he could overwhelm the field.

  6. ama49

    So here’s my question with my limited political knowledge…if all the republicans split the states and Mitt shows a solid 1st or second in most states, does he have a chance at the nomination? How does the nomination work exactly?

  7. Pingback: Rush Limbaugh Explains Why the Conservative Base of the GOP Is Getting Thrown Under the Bus « Killbuck Creek Politics

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