It’s ALIVE!! Hillary Returns from the Dead

Being a Mitt Romney supporter, I thought for sure that this morning I would be writing either about a victorious Mitt Romney or another Silver Medal Mitt Romney. But some events are just too incredible to be ignored by writing a piece about a largely expected 2nd place finish for my guy. 

The Hillary Clinton victory last night was nothing short of stunning.   Barack had all the momentum and all the excitement following a big Iowa win.  And as the day progressed and turnout was way larger than expected, it appeared to me and many others that Barack was going to win this thing in a massive landslide, I even thought he could break 50% of the vote.

But Hillary’s machine did the unthinkable.  They worked their tails off and got people out to vote for her.  Some were probably swayed by the tears on Monday, others of her supporters saw that she needed all the help she could get and made sure to get out and vote. It was a really stunning victory.

So what do I take from all this.  I take that GOP is in big, big trouble in November.  Yesterday I was saying that I was torn between the dems because on the one hand continued Hillary loses gets her out of the race and we are done with the Clinton’s forever (what a great day that will be) on the other hand I figured that Obama was the tougher general election candidate and could appeal to more people; thus it was in my interest for Hillary to win the nomination.

Now, I don’t think Obama appeals necessarily to a larger subset, rather I think he appeals more for a different subset.  Obama appeals to the idealist, to the young – i.e. people who don’t vote. Whereas Hillary appeals to the older, career oriented crowds.  People who do vote.  A lot of people who would vote for Hillary due to her experience and her (seemingly, though I don’t buy it) more moderate views would likely consider switching over to a McCain, Romney, or Giuliani in the general if the extremely inexperienced Barack were nominated.

Conversely, Hillary would still get the vast majority of youth voters (because they nearly always vote democratic) that support Obama, her only concern is simply getting them to care enough to actually show up at the polls (which they won’t do).   Additionally, Hillary has the best organization of all the candidates and has nearly all the powers-that-be in DC behind her.  She will be a tough one to beat.

Looking at it this way, if Mitt really wants to be President it may be better for him to finish 2nd in the nomination and run again in 2012.  I still firmly believe that Mitt is the best person to be President, why waste that in an unwinnable year (or so it appears). 

About 2 hours to go in NH

Well, folks, we have about two hours until the last of the precincts are scheduled to close in New Hampshire.  All reports are that it has been an historical day with record turn out.  The Barack explosion is continuing, and this may turn out to be good news for Mr. Mitt Romney.  So what are we hearing now?

Not much yet.  Here is some insight from Marc Ambinder:

EXIT POLLS: GOP: 3 in 10 independents are GOP voters…many late deciders… McCain more electable than Romney…33% say economy is biggest issue followed by Iraq (22%) …. Democrats: 46% made up minds without last week.. 4 in 10 are independents…. HRC’s favorability: 73%; Obama’s: 84%; … 36% say economy is top issue….

Basically, so we have 30% of the people that voted GOP are independents.  This is right about the max level that Mitt can survive, however there are some internal reports that I have heard from the Romney camp that indicate that he has closed the indy gap with John McCain.  If this is so, and Mitt can hold onto the GOP base, he has a great shot to win tonight.

I am also hearing that some inside the Romney camp are expecting him to finish betwee 32% and 35%.  Adding that they expect to do no worse than 1.5% behind McCain or as well as +5% over McCain.   If they are right, then there really is little bad news for Mitt tonight, even if he does lose.  Coming in behing 1.5% while on an upswing of momentum should be just fine for him to head into Michigan.

Looking at all the polls from today, I still refuse to concede anything or to get my hopes up, I had a rough enough night last Thursday.  So I personally am keeping expectations as low as possible, but I must admit, that I am cautiously optimistic.  If you are in NH and haven’t voted yet, get out there and vote for Mitt!!!

P.S.  I may be crazy, but I would not be surprised to see Barack over 50% when it is all said and done tonight.  You heard it hear first.

Mitt and Fred Up; Impact on Iowa

Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson were the two obvious winners in the Iowa debate yesterday.  Mitt wins because he had the best answers, was specific, showed Presidential attributes, and differentiated himself from the rest of the competitors.

Fox News Focus Group: Mitt Wins

Fred won because he had solid answers and had the most memorable lines and moments of the debate.  His refusal to raise his hand and not answer the global warming question was priceless.  It will probably help him with the voter too.

Fred’s Memorable Moment:

The rest of the candidates were largely forgettable.   McCain started out well, but as the debate wore on he seemed annoyed or, perhaps, somber.  Every answer showed his age and he talked with a soft and almost reflective manner, that normally wouldn’t bother me, but this is about 4 straight debates he has been like this; it gets old.  Additionally, he has become a one-issue candidate.  What immigration is to Tancredo, Iraq/Vietnam is to McCain.  One issue candidates don’t win.  The one positive, he didn’t say “let me give you some straight talk”.  I hate that.

With the exception of Huckabee, there is not much to say about any other candidate.  Rudy needed a big day to stem his plummeting numbers, but he didn’t.  Alan Keyes and Ron Paul were made for each other, how about a Paul/Keyes run on the Libertarian ticket; that would be hilarious.

Huckabee had the most pressure as the new Iowa front runner.  He folded like a cheap tent.  It wasn’t that he said anything wrong or detrimental, but he wasn’t himself.  I really think that he went into intent on not cracking jokes and limiting his witty statements; I think he wanted to come across as Presidential.  It didn’t work for him. 

What baffled me though, were the “so-called” experts on the MSM (Fox and CNN).  Many of them said that Huck won by default because none of the other candidates challenged him and he had no tough questions.  They argued that his style today won’t be a negative because most people weren’t watching.  I disagree.  While most of America wasn’t watching, Iowans were.  That is most important.  I really think this debate, coupled with the negative news of late will pull Huckabee back to the pack.  The one-night stand is over.

So in the unlikely event that I am right about Huck, what happens in Iowa.  Well I think two things will occur.  First, I think Mitt will get his mojo back and win the state.  Huck will finish a close second.  However, both Mitt and Huck need to check the rear-view mirror for Fred Thompson.  It looks like Iowa is Fred’s Alamo. He is putting all of his effort there and had a successful debate.  We saw how fast Huck caught fire, if Huck quickly flames out that support could quickly switch Fred and put him in the race. 

However, timing is a tough thing.  The Christmas holiday will likely hamper any major movement in the campaigns, leaving just one week to boom.  Additionally, what kind of ground game does Fred have in Iowa?  Not much of one.  Nevertheless, I think this new push will give him a solid 3rd place finish, with Rudy being a distant 4th.

All in all, things are starting to shape up nicely for Mitt.  He has received a bump nationally from “the Speech”, had a great debate, and pulled within 5 points of Huck in the latest Iowa poll.  A lot have said, and I agree, that if Mitt wins Iowa, he will then win New Hampshire in a landslide, and will then win the nomination.  It will be fun to watch, no matter what happens.