Are Putin and Clinton Both Right?

It is a rare occassion when I agree with either Vladimir Putin (whom I think is the most dangerous person on Earth) and Hillary Clinton (whom I just despise, but no real vitriol there).  But, I always thought it would be a cold-day in hell before I agreed with both of them, but that day has come.

(Hat Tip: Ben Smith/Politico)

Back before the New Hampshire primary Hillary Clinton, when asked about Russia and Putin, Hillary said that Putin, “didn’t have a soul.”   I can’t say that I disagree there. 

Yesterday, Putin was asked to respond to this comment (a little late if you ask me) and he replied, “At a minimum, a head of state should have a head.”   I can’t say I disagree there either (in two ways, certainly a President should have a ‘head’ and that Hillary doesn’t). 

So despite the fact they were criticizing each other, they were both right! How about that.  I am confident that a similar event will never happen again in my lifetime. 

Final thought, speaking of Russia, wasn’t it Fred Thompson who referred to Russia as the Soviet Union? ….  ‘and (he) wanted to be my latex salesman’.

Why Fred Thompson will stay in…I hope I’m wrong

 UPDATE: (Tuesday 22 Feb): Hooray! I was wrong!  Fred drops out!

There is a lot of speculation that Fred Thompson will drop out of the race in the next couple of days, while this certainly would not surprise me (and he really should drop out), I think he may just stay in the race.  The reason for this is because of John McCain.

Here are some premises from which I will build my case:

1. McCain (and Huck, but this is irrelevant) absolutely despises Mitt Romney.

2. McCain and Thompson are friends and have worked closely together in the Senate.

3. It is likely that Fred would endorse McCain if he got out of the race.

4. (This is key) Despite that endorsement, a majority of Fred supporters would and are flocking to Mitt.

Considering this, I would not be the least bit surprised to find out that the McCain camp approached the Thompson camp and asked them to stay in the race to siphon off  conservative votes from Mitt.  Currently, Fred is averaging about 8-10% in Florida.  If Fred were to get out and endorse McCain, I would suspect that only about 2% would go to McCain, 2% would go to Huckabee, and the remaining 4-6% would go to Mitt.  So for McCain that is a net loss of 2-4% to Mitt.  Thus, it is much better for McCain to keep Thompson in the race as long as possible, even despite a potential big endorsement.

Let me add for good measure that Huckabee will attempt the same thing and will not drop out after Super-Tuesday, despite him knowing full well that he cannot win.  It will all be about getting McCain in the White House  and keeping Mitt out of it.

Nevada v. South Carolina, a Gutsy Strategy

Yesterday, Mitt Romney practically conceded South Carolina to his fellow GOP competitors for the nomination and announced that he would spend the weekend campaigning in Nevada.  This is wise, yet gutsy, move for Mitt.  It is wise because he knows he has no chance to win.  South Carolina is naturally a better fit for McCain (Military members and veterans), Huckabee (evangelicals), and Thompson (accent) as opposed to the smooth NE state governer Mormon candidate.

So here are the positives:

1. Nevada has more delgates than South Carolina, the SC delegates are likely to be more divided due to more people splitting the vote, including Mitt.

2. Minimizes the impact of a McCain or Huckabee victory, although only slightly. 

3. Winning Nevada gives him a win going into Florida, counters the Mo for the winner of SC.

4. Helps solidify Mitt in the West, the western States are going to be more important than the Southern in the general, as the South will most likely stick with the GOP candidate regardless.

5. Losing SC is becomes not as big of a deal, he can say, “what do you want? I wasn’t contesting there and I, as a Mormon, barely lost to two Southerners and a military hero.

6. His organizational strength, coupled with the strong SC endorsements and the MI win, could still give Mitt a 2nd or 3rd place finish. If in the unlikely event that he finishes 2nd, that would be a major victory for Mitt that he can play up.  It would also all but eliminate Thompson and Huckabee from the race (assuming they finished 3rd and 4th)

7. Mitt is saying that McCain looks like a foregone conclusion in SC, this raises McCain’s expectations, while lowering Mitt’s.  So if Huck or Fred beats McCain, it will look like an even bigger loss for McCain, which could be devastating for him.

Here are the negatives:

1. Demonstrates Mitt’s inherent weakness in the South.  Can he overcome this? (I think so)

2. Nevada is being ignored by Republicans, will Nevada be viewed the way Wyoming was? (By the way, if I were a Republican in a western state, I would be pretty offended that this is the second time that important region is being ignored by the bulk of the party).

3. Possibly being overshadowed by the Democrats in Nevada with media coverage.

4. More positive media coverage for the SC winner (especially because the media doesn’t like Mitt at all) rather than the Nevada winner.

5. Media and McCain will try to pass Mitt’s Nevada win off as only being because of all the Mormons there. The media will conveniently forget that Nevada should a natural McCain state, as he is from the neighboring state and the only candidate from the West.  (I hate the media)

So this is how I see Mitt’s strategy.  It is obviously less than ideal, but considering the circumstances, it was a wise decision.  It is more important for Mitt to have another win to offset the likely McCain win in SC heading into Florida.  This will set up a 3-way race in Florida.  The big question is how does Rudy play in Florida, he has been dedicating all his time and money there, yet he is not getting any traction.  I also think that Rudy and McCain split the vote in Florida and it will provide a great opportunity for Mitt there.

It is way to early to make predictions about Florida, but one thing is for sure, it is going to be a fist fight.  One of the good things, is that it is likely that Fred will drop out of the race if he doesn’t win in SC on Saturday (which he won’t).  I think Fred will endorse McCain, but I don’t see many of his supporters heading that way, they more logically fit with Mitt (and vice-versa, Mitt supporters-like myself-would have moved to Fred’s camp had Mitt dropped out).   If Fred drops out, I definitely give the advantage to Mitt in Florida, but that is all dependent upon how this weekend and the subsequent news coverage plays out. 

One final note regarding strategy for Mitt, I would put in a lot of really quiet effort into getting out Huckabee, Paul, or Thompson voters in Nevada.  I would try to push McCain into third or fourth there.  That would be pretty embarassing for McCain to come in third in both his neighboring and pretty moderate Republican state. An ideal finish in Nevada would be a huge margin of victory for Mitt, someone not named McCain in 2nd, and McCain far behind.  GO NEVADA!

 You’re thoughts?

The Good News for Mitt

Here are some positives that Mitt supporters can look at as we move forward:

1. Voting already started in New Hampshire, well before the McCain surge.

2. The media is starting to spin Huckabee’s spin as being all because of the evangelical vote.

3. Mitt is the only candidate that is competitive in all of the states.

4. There are two(?) debates before New Hampshire — Mitt needs to hammer McCain hard.

5. McCain came in 4th.  (Really good news)

6. Obama won on the Democrat side, likely pulling independent voters in NH to vote in the Dem contest.

7. McCain/Feingold Campaign Finance Reform

8. McCain supports (or until his recent flip-flop) Amnesty

9. McCain is an angry old man and a little loony.

10. Ron Paul beat Rudy in Iowa, Rudy only got 3%.

11. Fred has not dropped out yet (let’s hope he stays in through South Carolina).

12. Lots of money and a strong organization.

13. Mitt has a home in New Hampshire, at least he can sleep in his own place for the next few nights.

14. I really, really, really, want him to win (does that make a difference? :))

Iowa Caucus Predictions

The day we have been waiting for is finally here!  After months and months of campaigning, the voting starts tonight, and the race is much murkier than it was even 3 months ago.  As a result, attempting to make a prediction on what will happen is futile.  Nevertheless, it is an obligation that we bloggers have to throw our two cents in so here it goes.

1. Mitt Romney-33%

2. Mike Huckabee – 28%

3. Ron Paul – 13%

4. Fred Thompson – 12%

5. John McCain – 11%

6. Rudy Giuliani – 2%

Yes, I have Ron Paul third.  This was a hugely tough decision, but I know how passionate Ron Paul supporters are and I think they will turn out in droves to the caucuses.  It appears that McCain, Fred, and Giuliani fans in Iowa are less enthusiastic because they aren’t going to win the state.  So even though Paul is only polling at about 7-8% now, his passionate supporters and his organization could be good enough to propel him into third.

Organization is what should ultimately separate Mitt from Huck.  They are virtually tied heading into tonight and Mitt’s machine should propel him to victory.  That being said, Huck has the support of a lot of Churches, they too are quite effective at organization, so I would no be shocked with a Huck win. That being said, if Huckabee wins, I will lose all confidence in the judgement of Iowans and will call for them being punished to be the last state to vote in 2012.  I can understand voters choosing Thompson or McCain, but Huckabee? Really?

Finally, Thompson gets the edge over McCain because he has spent more time and resources in Iowa.  I think his organization is a little better.  However, his supporters could be dejected due to his poor overall standing and that may affect turn out.  McCain supporters on the other hand may turn out in higher percentage because he is now surging nationally and especially in New Hampshire. 

Ultimately, the race for first can go either way and so can the race for third.   Although, I find third place is harder to call.  It all comes down to how truly dedicated Paul supporters are and how positive Thompson supporters can remain.  One thing we do know is that it is highly likely that anything besides a third place finish and Thompson is dropping out (and I think he is praying for a 4th place finish to give him an excuse).