Tag Archives: Ron Paul

Mitt Wins Wyoming With Over 65% of the Vote

Now Mitt is leading the medal count in the GOP race: 1-Gold, 1-Silver. Even better he now leads the GOP delegate count with 28 delegates total. Here is the total delegate count in case you are paying attention:

Romney-26
Huckabee-20
Thompson-5
McCain-3
Hunter-1
Giuliani-1

While Wyoming is less meaningful than the other January states (for whatever reason), a win is a win is a win. Fortunately CNN, Drudge, USA Today, and many other news organizations are at least mentioning Mitt’s win. Hopefully, this with solid debates in the next two days, will prove enough to propel Mitt in New Hampshire. If Mitt wins New Hampshire, he will also win MI and NV, and be close in SC.

Ultimately, McCain needs NH more than Mitt does. If McCain loses NH, that could be the end for him. He will continue at least through Feb. 5th, but he would likely have minimal success.

I for one still have a lot of optimism in Mitt’s overall chances. I wouldn’t dare go so far to say that he is the front-runner, I can’t say anyone is at this point. I am confident, however, that Mitt is the GOP’s best candidate and the only one that brings together all conservative facets under one umbrella and has the work ethic to beat the Democrat in November.

PS. Notice that Giuliani came in far behind Ron Paul in Iowa and is tied with Duncan Hunter in the delegate count. That is some campaign he is running over there.

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Filed under Conservative, Election 2008, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Politics, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Uncategorized

Iowa Caucus Predictions

The day we have been waiting for is finally here!  After months and months of campaigning, the voting starts tonight, and the race is much murkier than it was even 3 months ago.  As a result, attempting to make a prediction on what will happen is futile.  Nevertheless, it is an obligation that we bloggers have to throw our two cents in so here it goes.

1. Mitt Romney-33%

2. Mike Huckabee – 28%

3. Ron Paul – 13%

4. Fred Thompson – 12%

5. John McCain – 11%

6. Rudy Giuliani – 2%

Yes, I have Ron Paul third.  This was a hugely tough decision, but I know how passionate Ron Paul supporters are and I think they will turn out in droves to the caucuses.  It appears that McCain, Fred, and Giuliani fans in Iowa are less enthusiastic because they aren’t going to win the state.  So even though Paul is only polling at about 7-8% now, his passionate supporters and his organization could be good enough to propel him into third.

Organization is what should ultimately separate Mitt from Huck.  They are virtually tied heading into tonight and Mitt’s machine should propel him to victory.  That being said, Huck has the support of a lot of Churches, they too are quite effective at organization, so I would no be shocked with a Huck win. That being said, if Huckabee wins, I will lose all confidence in the judgement of Iowans and will call for them being punished to be the last state to vote in 2012.  I can understand voters choosing Thompson or McCain, but Huckabee? Really?

Finally, Thompson gets the edge over McCain because he has spent more time and resources in Iowa.  I think his organization is a little better.  However, his supporters could be dejected due to his poor overall standing and that may affect turn out.  McCain supporters on the other hand may turn out in higher percentage because he is now surging nationally and especially in New Hampshire. 

Ultimately, the race for first can go either way and so can the race for third.   Although, I find third place is harder to call.  It all comes down to how truly dedicated Paul supporters are and how positive Thompson supporters can remain.  One thing we do know is that it is highly likely that anything besides a third place finish and Thompson is dropping out (and I think he is praying for a 4th place finish to give him an excuse).

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Filed under Election 2008, Fred Thompson, Iowa, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Politics, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani

GOP Race, One week out

Well, I don’t know about you, but I cannot remember crazier primary race than the one going on right now.    I for one figured that by the time Iowa rolled around it would be down to a two man race, three at the most.  I thought Huckabee would still be in, but not “in”.   I thought McCain would stay dead.  I thought Giuliani would be making a push in New Hampshire and in second in Iowa. And I thought Romney would still be dominating Iowa.  About the only two things that turned out the way I thought was that Fred Thompson would fade and that Romney would come back to the pack in New Hampshire.

Well, now that I have sufficiently demonstrated how inept I am (although in my defense I did nail the predictions-including the margin of victory-at the Ames straw poll,  and everyone was completely off on their predictions, so I am not alone).  Allow me to give a quick run down of the current state of the race and make some predictions that are sure to be wrong.  First the candidates:

1. Mitt Romney.  I rank Mitt #1 because he has the most paths to the nomination.  He could lose IA, win NH, win MI.  He could win IA, lose NH, win MI.  He could lose both IA and NH, win WY and MI.  Or he could win IA.  Two things I tend to strongly believe, however,  First, if he wins IA, he wins the nomination.  Second if he loses IA, Michigan is a MUST win.  

All this being said, Mitt is still a wild card even if he loses MI.  He has the money and organization to compete in later states.  But I wouldn’t give him much of a shot.

2. John McCain.  I can’t believe I am ranking him second. But this is what I see.  I think a solid 3rd place finish for him in Iowa will be treated by the media as a win; much like Huckabee’s second in straw poll.  If he wins NH, he will have a good shot at MI.  Voters know him, for good and bad, and that will prove to be a positive thing for him.  They also know that he is considered the most electable, and in a group of candidates that no one can decide on, it may come down to who can actually win.  

Additionally, McCain has two scenarios for the nomination.  If he wins NH, he will be in a good spot.  But he could lose the first two and still win the nod, here’s how: A solid 3rd in IA (with Huck winning), propels him to a close 2nd place loss to Mitt in NH, say 1-3 point loss.  The media will rave about the resurgent McCain.  This “mo” leads him to a win in Michigan and on to the nomination.  I think this scenario is HIGHLY unlikely, but it is plausible.

3. Mike Huckabee.  Mike has only one scenario: Win IOWA.  A win in Iowa may be enough to keep him afloat into South Carolina.  A win there and he could sweep the southern states, including Florida.  If he does this, he could be the guy.  He is leading nationally now and leads in a lot of states. But that lead is contigent on Iowa.

However, Iowa is going to be a tough victory.  He has to contend with Mitt’s superior organization, which some pontificators argue gives Mitt an additional 5% to the current polls.  If Mitt draws closer, say within 3-4 points, a victory for Huck will be very difficult.  Not only that, but Huckabee has become the most divisive candidate in the party.  A win in Iowa will only strengthen the voices of opposition, it will be difficult to win SC without winning or placing in NH, WY, or MI and while facing a barrage of attacks from many conservatives. 

It should be noted that McCain and Huckabee’s rankings are almost interchangeable.

4. Rudy Giuliani.  His collapse has been astounding and incredibly quiet.  The most news he has received in December is about a hospital stay.   Rudy has gone all in in Florida.  A loss there and he is done.  He may still pull a few states out on Feb 5th, but one of those won’t be California. 

The problem Rudy has in Florida is that he is flailing there also.  Huckabee is surging and Mitt is right there as well.  I just don’t see Rudy being able to hang on in Florida after placing 3rd or worse in the first 6 contests.

This being said, Rudy has the most room for improvement, check back in a month and don’t be surprised if he is up to 2nd. 

5. Ron Paul.  That’s right, not Fred.  Why?  Neither is going to win a state, but with Ron’s grassroots support and huge financial advantage, don’t be surprised if he pulls out 4th in Iowa and 3rd in New Hampshire.  Ultimately, it doesn’t mean anything, except that he is in a better position than Fred.  At least Ron has the money for an independent run in ’08.

6. Fred Thompson.  Has there been a more disappointing candidate in the race?  While he may have some good ideas, they certainly aren’t his (at least that’s my perception).  Fred feels like a complete puppet to me.  His wife wants victory more than him.  He was coaxed into the race by a bunch of GOPers who saw him as a shoe in because he talks slow, has an accent, and is an actor.  

The only shot Fred has is with a third place finish in Iowa and he needs to pray that the media plays that up.  But even so, if there are only two tickets out of New Hampshire, he won’t have one of them.

So here are my state by state predictions through Jan 19th:

Iowa: 1. Huckabee (as of today) 2. Mitt 3. McCain 4. Fred 5. Paul 6. Rudy

WY: 1. Mitt 2. Huck 3. McCain 4. Paul 5. Fred 6. Rudy 

NH: 1. Mitt 2. McCain 3. Rudy 4. Huck 5. Paul 6. Fred

MI: 1. Mitt 2. McCain 3. Huck 4. Rudy 5. Paul 6. Fred

SC: 1. Huck 2. Mitt 3. Fred 4. McCain 5. Rudy 6. Paul

NV: 1. Mitt 2. McCain 3. Rudy 4. Huck 5. Paul 6. Fred

And if it plays out like that:

FL: 1. Mitt 2. Huck 3. Rudy 4. McCain

And Mitt is your nominee. 

P.S.  This outlook will probably change tomorrow. 

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What if Bloomberg, Paul Make Indy Runs in ’08?

It is being reported this morning that staffers to NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg will make an independent run at the White House in 2008.  David Andleman reports in Forbes:

Folks close to New York City’s twice-elected mayor suggest that he’s made up his mind to end one of the city’s long-running rumors and become an Independent candidate for president.  The date of his announcement? Pencilled in for right after Super Tuesday–Feb. 5.

Additionally, there is a lot of speculation that Rep. Ron Paul will also make an independent run at the Presidency.  Dr. Paul will likely lead the fundraising pack for the GOP in Q4 2007 and much of that will likely go into a warchest for the general election.

Mr. Paul already has a solid base of support as he is polling as high as 7% nationally among the GOP, and if that is indeed the case, we can assume that he is at about 3% nationally overall.  I would argue that this number is likely high, however, it does illustrate the point that Paul has a solid base.

If Ron and Mike both jump into the race in 2008, we will have four candidates with a good base of support and more influential than most 3rd party candidates.  What will be interesting is to see what effect this has on the general election. 

Both Ron Paul and Mike Bloomberg  have close GOP connections.  Ron is considered a Libertarian Republican and Mike, well, was elected Mayor of NYC as a Repub after converting from the Democratic party and is now a registered Independent.

I would argue that a Mike Bloomberg candidacy would hurt the democrats more than the Republicans, especially if Hillary is the nominee.   Bloomberg has a legitimate moderate-liberal record and with all the baggage Hillary carries, he would be viewed as a solid and acceptable alternative for the Democrats.  At the least he makes New York state up for grabs, and not only for him, but for the GOP candidate.

However, Bloomberg may not only negatively affect the Democrats, he would likely have a devastating affect on the GOP if Rudy Giuliani gets the nomination.  Considering the already negative taste Giuliani has put in many Republicans’ mouths, me included, and the fact that Bloomberg and Giuliani have somewhat similar resumes; it is quite feasible that a large portion of Republican voters will vote for Mike, potentially throwing red states to Hillary (all the while throwing blue states to the GOP!). 

I also think that Bloomberg could have a negative affect on Mitt Romney.  One of the key platforms that Mitt runs on is his business record and his experience in the private sector, with Bloomberg coming from a similar background, he could take a significant percentage away from Mitt.

On the other hand, Mitt may prove to be the best bet against Bloomberg because of their similar backgrounds and the fact that Mitt is running in one of the two major parties.  Voters may look at both Mitt and Bloomberg and think there is little difference between the two (remember that the average voter doesn’t get into the details of candidates like we nerds who blog) and decide that Mike doesn’t have a legitimate shot at winning so will vote for Mitt to keep Hillary out of office.

A Ron Paul independent campaign will have a much lesser affect on the campaign.  While I wrote above that his national support may be as high as 3% across the board, it is unlikely that in any event, he would garner more than 1% nationally come Nov 2008.  The places where Paul will likely have the most influence are states with very independent and libertarian thinkers.  I could see Ron taking more than 1-2% of the vote in states like Vermont, New Hampshire, Texas, Montana, and Idaho.  However, the only state that is really considered a swing state here is New Hampshire, so a Ron Paul candidacy would likely have less impact. 

Additionally, Ron Paul will gather supporters from both parties.  He will likely get a majority of the registered libertarian vote, and will get votes from the anti-war right and the capitalist-left. 

Ultimately, if there are 4 real candidates running for President in 2008, we will be in for a wild ride.  I think that would be fantastic for Democracy and hopefully open up our future elections to at least 3 legitimate candidates rather than 2.  Further, it would not surprise me one bit to have Bloomberg win a few electoral votes and maybe even win New York or New Jersey, he simply wins a few votes, but not a state, it is quite possible that we will have no candidate reach the 271 minimum electoral count.  If he happens to win a state or two, they will likely be “blue” states and he would push the election to the Republicans (unless Giuliani is the nominee).

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Filed under Democracy, Democrats, Election 2008, Politics