Why Fred Thompson will stay in…I hope I’m wrong

 UPDATE: (Tuesday 22 Feb): Hooray! I was wrong!  Fred drops out!

There is a lot of speculation that Fred Thompson will drop out of the race in the next couple of days, while this certainly would not surprise me (and he really should drop out), I think he may just stay in the race.  The reason for this is because of John McCain.

Here are some premises from which I will build my case:

1. McCain (and Huck, but this is irrelevant) absolutely despises Mitt Romney.

2. McCain and Thompson are friends and have worked closely together in the Senate.

3. It is likely that Fred would endorse McCain if he got out of the race.

4. (This is key) Despite that endorsement, a majority of Fred supporters would and are flocking to Mitt.

Considering this, I would not be the least bit surprised to find out that the McCain camp approached the Thompson camp and asked them to stay in the race to siphon off  conservative votes from Mitt.  Currently, Fred is averaging about 8-10% in Florida.  If Fred were to get out and endorse McCain, I would suspect that only about 2% would go to McCain, 2% would go to Huckabee, and the remaining 4-6% would go to Mitt.  So for McCain that is a net loss of 2-4% to Mitt.  Thus, it is much better for McCain to keep Thompson in the race as long as possible, even despite a potential big endorsement.

Let me add for good measure that Huckabee will attempt the same thing and will not drop out after Super-Tuesday, despite him knowing full well that he cannot win.  It will all be about getting McCain in the White House  and keeping Mitt out of it.


Filed under Election 2008, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Politics

16 responses to “Why Fred Thompson will stay in…I hope I’m wrong

  1. I basically have the same idea you gotten DryFly, but I have a different view.

    I think that Thompsons only chance at being VP is to endorse and support Romney, not McCain. Put that they were buddies in the Senate aside, Fred would be seen as a ‘sell out’ if he went to McCain because they differ on policy to far, Romney would be a much easier ticket to ride on, and he’d fill in the National Security slot that Romney isn’t focusing on.

    The way Thompson is putting it though “to fill in the conservative creditentals” of a canidate up for President does seem that he’d pick McCain, but I think he’ll be hurt by it big-time.

    Huck and Rudy are dead fish if they end up low in the turnout in Florida, all these canidates going into Super Tuesday will be fun to watch but it’s going to be a bloody battle, wonder if something will happen so that everyone can come together to battle the real problem, the Clintons.

  2. liz

    I don’t think Fred wants to be VP anymore than he wanted to be Prez, do you? It would be a bold (and maybe presumptuous) move if a ROMNEY/POWELL ’08 ticket were announced, giving voters an idea of a well-rounded, quality ticket. My friend and I were discussing it today, we’d be all over a ticket like that. Fred’s, shall we say, relaxed manner would detract from Romney’s high-energy, competent vibe. I want someone who will hustle for my tax dollar, that’s Romney, not Fred.

  3. Carolina

    Why in the world would Mitt Romney, or any conservative for that matter, want Colin Powell on the ticket? He is a very moderate republican and does not have a good standing among most conservatives in the Republican party.

    We need a beloved figure, not Colin Powell.

  4. braddahmike

    What is a VP to McCain anyways? He’s a maverick…remember? Does anyone really think a VP would be beneficial or work together with McCain? Most likely he picks someone that is like Fred….to secure the conservative vote…but it’s almost blatant pandering because most conservatives know McCain’s going to do whatever he wants. Lieberman could be an option where he runs on abandoning the conservative movement and goes for moderate Repubs/Indies/ and moderate Dems.

    As for Fred staying in…I think you’ll see his numbers going down everyday he’s silent. If you’re a player in Florida…you are out there campaigning. He’s not. Look for those numbers to drop. It’ll be interesting to see where those votes go. Plus his campaign has got to be running on fumes…and it’s not like McCain has $$ to spend on him.

  5. I can understand why a liberal tax & spend Huckabee would try to help McCain – but how could Fred purposely do something to allow such a non-conservative to win the GOP nod?????

    If Fred truly believes his conservative principals are what is best for America – how can he do something that would help a bafoon like McCain win the nod??? (Let alone endorse him!!!)

    Mitt & Fred have been my top two picks all along since they are the two most conservative on issues across the board. If Fred pulls this stunt, he loses all my respect…and I mean all.

  6. Romney should ditch the other GOP candidates (who all hate him anyway) and select J.C. Watts for VP…this helps with the evangelical base, the African-American vote, and just might give Mitt a landslide victory against Hillary when the African-American base of the Dem’s decide to abandon the party after all the crap she’s pulling on Obama.

  7. Celestina

    Does it have to do with electablity. GOP seems to be uncertain whether Mitt has it, the ability to beat Democrats coming Nov? One way or another, I believe the more people are getting to know Mitt better, he will grow on them as time goes on… with this in mind, he will become more and more formidable of a candidate against the bickering democrats

    GO MITT!

    What say you?

    Remember, a vote for Fred is a vote for McCain… Choose Mitt!

  8. Eric

    I like the idea of JC Watts, but why not Condoleeza Rice? She matches the hard-working ethics of Romney, fills the foreign policy void, and steals the woman/minority vote away from Hillary and Obama.

  9. SkinnerVic

    Although I can see why you think Condi is inviting, she’s *clueless* on foreign policy with respect to Palestine (got Read LittleGreenFootballs for their take if you think I’m being harsh).

    JC Watts is a MUCH better conservative, which I would get behind in a second…

  10. Tyler M

    McCain might make Mike Up-Chuck-abee think that he will get the VP spot, but I don’t think that McCain is dumb enough to put Up-Chuck-abee on the ticket with him. I would be one person who is very conservative who would vote for any Democrat (except Edwards) before I voted for a ticket with Up-Chuck-abee on it.

    Some have suggested that McCain will try for someone who is really conservative. I’m not sure. My guess is that he will either go for Senator Lindsay Grah-amnesty of South Carolina or Minnesota Governor Tim Polenty. McCain has always placed a greater premium on loyalty. That’s why I think that Grah-amnesty has the best chance. I also think that if McCain was smart, he would pick Lieberman. Not a conservative move, but Lieberman has a lot of universal appeal and would help McCain more than any other candidate. He just needs to stay Independent if that’s even allowed on the Republican ticket.

    It’s possible that Mitt Romney would go for South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint as the VP, who has been a Romney supporter. But I think that it’s more likely that Romney will go with another governor. Romney will pick either South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford or Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Sanford is a true conservative & I’m not too familiar with Christ’s politics, but he’s very popular in a very important state. Also, a possibility for Romney, if he wants the job and probably the Republican dream candidate for the bottom of the ticket, would be newly-elected Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Regardless, if Republicans lose in 2008, Jindal will go to the top of the list of possible candidates for President. Jindal truly is the next Reagan!

  11. Dennis the Mitthead wide awake in Seattle

    John & Fred? I’ve not heard much noise about that possibility. I did see much speculation about a John & Huck deal. Given they were taking turns flailing on Gov. Romney in Iowa & New Hampshire. Now they’ve gone to publicly calling each other all kinds of nice things. I would not be surprised to see all three of them gang up on Mitt. Rudy would love that and would join in just to have a piece of the action. They are all insanely jealous of his personal wealth and what he can do with it. What’s more they all fear his obviously superior credentials & desirability as a president. It is sad but there is at least an undercurrent of anti-Mormon prejudice in the mix. (One candidate cannot resist plumbing it’s depths to his shameful favor.)
    As far as a Romney VP: I agree that Powell is too moderate; and, I don’t think he wants it. I agree that JC Watts would be good choice a sound conservative, with a draw on blacks and evangelicals.

    But I have the very best person in mind: He should name Condi Rice as his running mate. As a bonus she would draw away from Mrs. Bill Clinton or Barack some women & black voters. However, I think Condi has said she’d never consider elective office, and that she wants to return from her present job to Stanford and do research & teaching. She may have warmed to the idea of elective office by now (given the way she personally responded to Huckabee’s ill-conceived attacks on President Bush, gives credence to that hope). Or, be induced to do it for the sake of keeping the country and world out of the hands of the radical left wing of the Dem party (Mrs. Bill Clinton & Barack). She would fill in Mitt’s deficiency in Foreign Policy. She would melt away some of the “wealthy-guy” stigma being hung on Gov. Romney. They would be undeniably be the brainiest duo to have served in those jobs in centuries, if ever. And, she’d make a great president if needed. She’d be the first woman ever viably nominated for either of the top two jobs.

    Mitt is driving the winning Express train and leaving all the other to choke on his exhaust.

    Get aboard!

    Go Governor Romney!

  12. Mr. Law

    Colin Powell???


    There is no chance that Mitt Romney will choose Colin Powell…Mitt is intelligent, remember?

    If Mitt Romney were to choose a black running mate it would be far more likely that we’d see Michael Steele than Colin “oopsIforgotI’manExtremeLeftist” Powell. At least Michael Steele is to the right of Juan “Amnesty” McCain!

  13. Mr. Law

    But I’d really love to see Mitt Romney choose Ann Coulter as his running mate…just imagine the VP debates!!!

  14. I think Condie Rice, would be a good VP, allow her to continue her foreign policy work and isn’t too high profile, I think that is why she dismissed running for President, didn’t want that kind of attention.

    I’ve heard her name being tossed around and I’m sure no one will baulk at her nomination, she’s a household name and well liked as far as I know.

  15. Fred made it clear he has no interest in VP.
    Condi won’t be asked; the Bush Admin and it’s people are considered toxic at this point (sadly, I liked Condi- before the State Dept. ruined her).

    Best choices for the (unfortunately) leading GOP candidates in this Year of the Pander:

    McCain’s VP- Michael Steele (outside the Beltway; young, dynamic speaker, domestic cred)

    Romney’s VP- Kay Bailey Hutchinson (Insider, foreign policy cred, regional appeal)

    If Obama pulls off a miracle, he could pick Diane Feinstein and become invincible.

    Of course here is my Fantasy Administration team:
    – Thompson/Hunter
    – John Bolton as Sec. of State
    – Gen. Petraeus as Sec. Defense
    – Robert Bork as Attorney General
    – Oliver North as Homeland Security
    – Ann Coulter as Press Secretary

    We’d win by default; liberal heads would explode at the mere mention of the slate (ala ‘Mars Attacks’ and yodeling).

  16. I see Thompson’s supporters going en-mass to Huckabee. Of course my money’s on Huckabee dropping after Super-Tuesday, but we’ll see him again… as McCain’s Vice President.

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