In vastly underreported election news, recent polls are showing a Romney surge in both South Carolina and Florida. Of course no one knows this because no one has mentioned it. We would all think that Romney was flopping around like a fish out of water in the Southern states according to some recent posts that have been written about each state. Of course, logic would tell us that Romney should not be doing well in either of these states: He is Mormon, Slick, and a NorEaster. Nevertheless, he is polling well and will likely be right in the thick of the races come January. Here are the recent polls:
Oct 02, Insider Advantage Poll: Thompson 21%, Romney and Giuliani 16%
Sep 26-29, ARG Poll: Romney 26%, Giuliani 23%, Thompson 10%
Sep 26-27, Rasmussen: Thompson 24%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 15%
Additionally, the Romney campaign performed an internal poll, here are the results:
Romney Internal Poll: Thompson: 24%, Romney 20%, Giuliani 15%
So, in South Carolina Romney is right in the thick of the fight. It appears that the recent condemnation of Giuliani by Christian Right leaders is having a detrimental effect and that the advertising that Romney has been airing over the last month is causing some movement. However, it should be noted that the same article that reported the Romney internal poll caveats the results by saying that this was before the Bob Jones endorsement. A separat poll says that 27% of South Carolinans are more likely to support Romney due to this, but 32% are less likely. It will be interesting to see what effect the evangelical endorsements will have.
In Florida, Romney also continues to surge, and Florida is arguably more important a victory for any of the candidates. Here are the recent polls:
Oct 1-8, Quinnipiac: Giuliani: 27%, Thompson 19%, Romney 17%
Oct. 2, Insider Advantage: Giuliani 29%, Thompson 19%, Romney 16%
Granted, these polls are nothing to get thrilled over as Giuliani has a sizeable lead. However, all previous polling had Romney hovering between 7% and 10% in Florida. So a 6-7 point jump in a month is significant and he is really the only one gaining steam in these states, whereas Giuliani and Thompson are plateauing.
It should also be mentioned that all the hubub about Huckabee or Thompson surging against Romney in Iowa should be somewhat muted by the most recent Iowa poll that gave Romney an impressive 14 point lead:
Oct 10-14, Strategic Vision Poll: Romney-27, Giuliani-13, Huckabee-12, Thompson-10.
I wonder if this will get the coverage that the poll placing Huckabee within 6 points will get. I doubt it.
All in all, while Romney has stalled in some places, so have all the candidates. The race is a real crap shoot, there is far from a difinitive front runner. However, it still looks to be a Giuliani-Romney finale.
My Dry Fly 
Do you think that conservative evangelicals have lessened their suspicion of Romney’s mormonism? Which would explain – in part – his success in the south.
I think you’ve got it right, but I think you have your front runners in reversed order. I think it’s Romney-Giuliani. Can Giuliani take his national polls and translate them into local wins? That has yet to be proven. Romney seems poised to win locally, and if history repeats itself, this should put Romney over the top.
As for evangelicals, There is a lot of unfounded suspicion of Romney. What they don’t understand yet is that Romney would make them proud.
Excellent post! Great information. I think you’ll enjoy my latest on Romney and Evangelicals.
It is not his religion …it is his flip flopping …what do you mean he never flopped ? Chris Mathews and Sean said he was a flip floppen mormon WHY IS THE ROOM SPINNING…… i am not a bigot …i do think for myself …we are not in Loas
Taking all factors into consideration, I think I would prefer Romney’s position to the others. For the following reasons:
1. Money- it seems to be hard to come by these days for the Republican candidates. Romney has a slight lead in money raised for the primary so far, and he can also write a big check himself.
2. Issues. Romney made it big in bringing up the immigration issue with McCain, and this had a negative impact on McCain’s campaign as well. Romney is a social, fiscal and military conservative. Huckabee and Giuliani can only lay claim to two of the three.
3. Evangelical endorsements. Enough has been said already.
4. Organization. He already drove McCain and Giuliani out of Iowa because of this, and this is also his advantage in New Hampshire.
5. Communication. I think he connects with his supporters better than the other candidates. Some people like Giuliani better in this regard, but I think this is because of the “angry” side of Giuliani.
6. Work ethic and energy level. The campaign is a marathon. Romney has the endurance, whereas others do not.
Precisely, Dr. J.
Chuck, what did Romney flip-flop on besides abortion? Even with abortion, who’s to say he wasn’t genuinely converted to pro-life? What’s wrong with that?
I am amazed at the number of people who parrot what the talking heads want them to say. Just because Chris Matthews or Sean said something does not make it correct. And with a computer, finding out the truth is very easy.
Romney has been smeared as a flip-flopper by those who are most afraid of the power of his candidacy. The charge has been repeated so often that it has become accepted as true by many. That does not make it true.
Romney is the real deal. The reports of his changing positions are seriously overblown. Rational people will see through this type of attack, because Romney is the most gifted, accomplished, proven public servant to emerge in this country in many decades, maybe even a lifetime. Most of the critiques of Romney is that he is too good, too smart, too well-spoken, too handsome, manages too well, too organized, too rich, works too hard, has too wholesome of a family, etc.
His opponents don’t have anything to challenge him on except to try to create a perception that he is untrustworthy and changes too quickly. Romney has publicly in the most transparent way in political history changed his position on abortion which (if you look at it closely) is not as big of a change as some make it out to be. He has always been personally pro-life and even anti-abortion. In Massachusetts he said he would not challenge the abortion crowd while Governor and he kept his word. Now that he is no longer the Governor, he now does challenge the pro-abortion crowd.
All other accusations of his change on issues are products of political rivals trying to show contrasts-no matter how small or normal -between one statement at one time and another statement at another time. Yet, I have seen Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain do more adjustments to their political stances in just the last two weeks.
What’s most important is that the candidate I choose represents a vision and set of policies for the future that I agree with. Romney has certainly provided that in a very comprehensive way that no other candidate even touches. Romney has what it takes to not only win, but to govern the country and bring about change in this country (as well as to ably confront Putin and other demagogues throughout the world. )
Ron Paul will top them all!!!
Just kidding; I’m a Romney supporter, but this is the first blog I’ve read that didn’t have a goofy Ron Paul retort.
Romney talks about his three-legged stool: Strong military, strong economy and strong families.
I have a three-legged stool requirement for my candidate of choice:
1. conservative policies
2. executive experience
3. proven track record of success
*********************************
Mitt Romney is the only candidate that fully satisfies each one of these requirements.
He could sit firmly and comfortably on my three-legged stool.
++++++++++++
Braden, do you have a link for what you wrote? Or do you post on evangelicalsformitt.com?
Bethophaz,
I agree. That’s why I’m voting for him.
I am well aware that his changes on positions are because he wants to be the best candidate. All of the other candidates tie themselves to their history. Maybe they want to change, but they feel that this would make them just like Mitt Romney. Some say this is pandering, but who else has even tried to make themself into the entire package that conservatives are looking for. If he had not done everything he promised to do when he became Masschusetts governor, the flip-flopping issue might cause me concern. But the man does what he says he will do, and that’s what I care about.
A good campaign slogan would be “conservative policies, proven track record of success”.
Ron Paul is my American idol!!!!
Just kidding again, I too am a Romney supporter.
@Chuck the Truck
For you it might be flip-flopping (which is not a correct assessment in my opinion, more on that later), for most people that isn’t true. In fact, it’s most definitely not his flip flopping, or perceived flip flopping at that. It’s his religion, and I’ll explain why in two parts:
1) Too many people forget what the responsibility of an elected official really spans. We have a perfect example of this with Larry Craig (the Idahoan senator). After his (alleged) homosexual encounters coming public, people start to criticize his past voting record and his anti-gay positions he’s taken and used as a platform to run. While most people should be celebrating and congratulating him for doing his job correctly. Larry put his own views aside and voted according to his constituents wants, desires and viewpoints. He actually represented his people, the people of Idaho whom are notably conservative, the way the majority of them believe, despite having personal feelings that differ (allegedly) on the subject of homosexuality.
Romney is in the same situation. His “flip-flopping” has never been a personal change in his stance on abortion. While in a leadership role of a people that were notably more socially liberal than he, the stance shifted from here is my personal view on abortion to my personal view is X, but my view as a leader of a people is Y because that’s they way my people would want it to be.
It’s sad when one of people’s biggest criticisms of an elected official is that he represented his constituents as they would have them, not according to his own personal whims or beliefs. It should be celebrated not criticized.
2) People were worried about Catholicism in the White House. Catholicism has been around for a while and is fairly well understood. It was “old scary” for a lot of people. The LDS church, or mormonism as it were, is “new scary”. In my experience, I would bet it’s about 80% of the people I’ve encountered still believe that polygamy is a mormon practice. It’s been well over a century since that has been true, but people remain ignorant.
So the fear of having a religious man in office still exists, a man that belongs to a mostly misunderstood religion is the number one reason why a lot of people will not even take the time to figure out what his political stances are before they write him off.
Re: Eric’s post “Romney would make them proud”
This is the most correct statement I have seen in some time. Unfortunately a lot of the MSM attributed ‘hesitation’ toward Romney is due to his religion. Fact is they see what WMR represents to the future of this nation and they’re lashing out…
Romney is best thing to come around in quite some time and will indeed make evangelicals ‘proud’. Pro-family – pro-life – pro-AMERICA (dare I say it?)
Also – keep in mind that not a single ballot has been cast. Whether someone will support someone or not is yet to be determined. Romney’s strategy is a winning strategy. Consider the fact that everyone wants to bet on the winning horse. WMR is in a great position – that’s not saying that there aren’t challenges ahead – there are many, but of the “5”, the reality is that it is he and Rudy. Thompson is fading and will continue to do so the more he campaigns. Just take a look at the moves on intrade and the like – Rudy and Romney.
Rational Zen – what you wrote is probably the most “rational” thing I’ve read in a blomment (blog comment) in a long time.
I am posting entries over at http://www.mymanmitt.com. I hope you don’t mind if I use your phrase “the new scary.” I really love that!
I’m going to start working on my new entry tonight — if you like, start looking for it soon!
Thanks so much!
@beth,
I appreciate the kind words. As long as you link back to the site so Steve gets some more pub, feel free and quote me all you’d like 🙂
I will remember that!