In vastly underreported election news, recent polls are showing a Romney surge in both South Carolina and Florida. Of course no one knows this because no one has mentioned it. We would all think that Romney was flopping around like a fish out of water in the Southern states according to some recent posts that have been written about each state. Of course, logic would tell us that Romney should not be doing well in either of these states: He is Mormon, Slick, and a NorEaster. Nevertheless, he is polling well and will likely be right in the thick of the races come January. Here are the recent polls:
Oct 02, Insider Advantage Poll: Thompson 21%, Romney and Giuliani 16%
Sep 26-29, ARG Poll: Romney 26%, Giuliani 23%, Thompson 10%
Sep 26-27, Rasmussen: Thompson 24%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 15%
Additionally, the Romney campaign performed an internal poll, here are the results:
Romney Internal Poll: Thompson: 24%, Romney 20%, Giuliani 15%
So, in South Carolina Romney is right in the thick of the fight. It appears that the recent condemnation of Giuliani by Christian Right leaders is having a detrimental effect and that the advertising that Romney has been airing over the last month is causing some movement. However, it should be noted that the same article that reported the Romney internal poll caveats the results by saying that this was before the Bob Jones endorsement. A separat poll says that 27% of South Carolinans are more likely to support Romney due to this, but 32% are less likely. It will be interesting to see what effect the evangelical endorsements will have.
In Florida, Romney also continues to surge, and Florida is arguably more important a victory for any of the candidates. Here are the recent polls:
Oct 1-8, Quinnipiac: Giuliani: 27%, Thompson 19%, Romney 17%
Oct. 2, Insider Advantage: Giuliani 29%, Thompson 19%, Romney 16%
Granted, these polls are nothing to get thrilled over as Giuliani has a sizeable lead. However, all previous polling had Romney hovering between 7% and 10% in Florida. So a 6-7 point jump in a month is significant and he is really the only one gaining steam in these states, whereas Giuliani and Thompson are plateauing.
It should also be mentioned that all the hubub about Huckabee or Thompson surging against Romney in Iowa should be somewhat muted by the most recent Iowa poll that gave Romney an impressive 14 point lead:
Oct 10-14, Strategic Vision Poll: Romney-27, Giuliani-13, Huckabee-12, Thompson-10.
I wonder if this will get the coverage that the poll placing Huckabee within 6 points will get. I doubt it.
All in all, while Romney has stalled in some places, so have all the candidates. The race is a real crap shoot, there is far from a difinitive front runner. However, it still looks to be a Giuliani-Romney finale.