Tag Archives: Republican

How is McCain So Close in the Polls?

I don’t know about you, but judging by the media coverage, the passionate supporters, the image, the speaking ability, the complete animosity toward the Republicans on the part of the general populace, and a very unpopular president, Barack Obama should be running away with this election. Everything seems to be favoring a President Obama, yet John McCain is right on his heels in the polls.  How can this be?

In the latest national polling, McCain has maintained between a 1 and 6 point deficit to Obama.  This appears to be very good news for McCain.  Real Clear Politics national polling average currently has Obama with 46.1% and McCain with 41.7%.  The latest Fox News poll gave Obama a 1 point lead, and as recent as Thursday , the rolling Gallup poll had Obama up 2.  Now in the last two days those gaps have widen, likely as a result of the “Messiah World Tour” Obama went on, and we can expect another narrowing in the next week I would suspect.

So how is it possible the race is this close?  Judging by the current atmosphere, the Democrat candidate should runaway with the election by 10 points and win nearly all the swing states.  But as of now that is not shaping up to be the case, and considering the electoral experience of McCain and the novice Obama, I wouldn’t expect McCain to fall much further behind.

The first reason that the Dems are not running away with this is their choice of candidate.  Barack is a divisive figure, even within the party.  His naive statements on foreign policy and the fact he defeated the queen bee in the nomination fight, turned off a good portion of democratic voters.  The Democrats should have nominated a moderate who could draw in more of the middle, Mark Warner, for example, would have been a run away choice and would have won the White House.

Second, is Barack’s experience.  He is a one term Senator with no executive experience whatsoever.  I have more foreign policy experience than he does.  And he is going up a extremely experienced and qualified Republican.

Third, and the most disappointing, is his name and Muslim background, perhaps even his race.  I hope that this impact is extremely limited, but I wonder, especially the muslim background. I assume this bothers a lot of voters (despite the fact he is a devout Christian now).  I wonder how many people will vote for a guy named Barack Obama?  It is of no issue to me, but I am sure it is to many others.  The fortunate thing for Obama is that many of the voter who don’t like him because of these reasons were likely going to vote for the Republican anyway, regardless of who the Dem nominee is.

Note, The last sentence above is not a criticism of the Republican Party, I don’t believe the GOP as an organization is bigoted or racist in the least, but honest observance and analysis shows that (white) racists usually vote Republican (while Black racists vote Democrat).

The third reason is John McCain.  While I can’t stand the man, he is really the most electable candidate for the GOP to nominate this season.  He is a moderate and has the reputation as a maverick.  He can successfully separate himself from the Bush administration as a result.  He appeals to many independent voters and moderate democrats who are less than thrilled with Obama.  (Here is where McCain’s veep selection may come in handy, and while I think the smartest move would be for him to nominate Sarah Palin.)  And most conservatives who dislike McCain will hold their nose and vote for him just to keep Obama out of the White House.

The final reason I think the race is close is that this is still a divided country.  While party membership numbers are down in the GOP, peoples’ personal political persuasion tend to be more conservative than liberal on average.  I think we will see the divide move even closer to 50/50 as improvments in Iraq continue to be shown and the Bush administration is somewhat vindicated.

All in all, this is a historic election, though I am less than thrilled with our options. If the Democrats lose this one, they just need to disband and start a new party.  (psst, Democratic voters, if you ever want to win a Presidential election when the political atmosphere is mostly neutral – unlike this one – stop nominating people who are the most left-wing and idealistic of your party, and start nominating people who actually somewhat represent mainstream America.  You need a somewhat moderate candidate who is pragmatic and experienced.  Fortunately, for we GOPers, your party isn’t likely to move that way soon as it has been hijacked by the communist wing of the party: I’m looking at you MoveOn and DailyKos.  The GOP had/has this problem with the “religious right”, we have been hijacked by them, but we were pragmatic and voted to win. You didn’t.)

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Filed under Barack Obama, Democrats, Election 2008, John McCain, Politics, Republicans

Is it Mitt?

Over at Race42008, Kavon Nikrad and Jason Bonham posted that Mitt Romney was indeed chosen to be John McCain’s running mate.  It sounds like their source is legit, although that doesn’t mean it will officially be announced right away.  But assuming this is accurate, what should we make of it.

First, despite the fact I have a man crush on Mitt, I don’t really want Mitt to be the McCain’s veep.  Mitt Romney needs to be President at some point.  Joining the sinking ship that is the McCain campaign won’t help this endeavor.  At this point in the race it appears that Obama is going to run away with the election (although current polls are ridiculously close and McCain really has a good shot).  Mitt Romney needs to become head of the Republican National Commitee and do a turn-around project with the party or he needs to run his PAC and help get GOP candidates elected and prepare to beat Obama in 2012.  Does anyone else think this year feels an awful lot like 1996 when the GOP nominated the sacrificial lamb of Bob Dole as the party’s standard bearer?

Even if John McCain wins in November, what good is it going to do for America or the party?  All McCain brings is the same old, more war and a worse economy.  The next four years could be very challenging for the country why not let the Dems wallow in it and bring in Mitt as the “fixer”.

Additionally, despite the fact I think that Obama would be a disaster, I also recognize the Country needs a new feel and pace.   Obama may actually be healthy, so long as it is only 4 years.  This being said, I am highly unlikely to vote for Obama, but I can’t say it is out of the question.  And this brings me back to Mitt and McCain.

The only way that my vote definitely goes for McCain is if he choose Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin as his running mate.  Otherwise it will take a lot of consideration and soul searching.  McCain needs to choose Palin for his VEEP then all my problems are solved. Sadly, this won’t happen.  What will happen, most likely, is that Mitt is his choice.  Good for McCain, good for Mitt, and, hopefully, good for the country.

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Filed under Conservative, Democrats, Election 2008, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Politics, Republicans

Top 5 McCain VEEP Options

The VEEP choice for John McCain will mean more for him than will Obama’s. John McCain needs to choose someone who can rally the base of the GOP, attract (or at least not scare off) Hillary voters who have been turned off by Obama, is strong where he is weak, can be President in the event McCain dies (his age is an issue), and can potentially help deliver “battle-ground” states.

His five best options are:

1. Mitt Romney. While Mitt does not accomplish all the criteria above, he covers more than any other. First, he has become popular with the GOP base, and while evangelicals don’t like him, it is unlikely, his presence results in a McCain loss in the South.

Mitt also is an economic genius, whereas McCain has readily admitted he is weak on economics. McCain could basically just make Mitt the economic Czar. Mitt also can deliver Michigan and New Hampshire (two states Bush lost in ‘04), as well as help the GOP hold onto Nevada and Colorado (due to the significant LDS population). Finally, he is the most qualified Republican for President not named John McCain (though I would personally argue that Mitt would be the best President from either party period, but I digress).

2. Sarah Palin. Who? You ask. Sarah Palin is the 44 year old knock-out, yet ridiculously competent, Governor of Alaska. Sure, Alaska is not a political powerhouse state and she has no more experience than Barack Obama, but her positives are off the chart.

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First, she is a solid conservative and extremely anti-corruption. She took on the extremely corrupt and entrenched GOP leadership in Alaska and won. She is an excellent communicator and does not hurt McCain at all.

The best reason for her though is that she would capture the attention of the American, if not the World’s, media and people. She will undoubtedly attract significant swath’s of the female voters that were backing Hillary, despite her conservatism. She can help off-set Obama’s image and help McCain be “younger”.

Her down side is her lack of experience, would she be able to step in as President should McCain not serve all the way through. Also, she is among the leaders of the GOP’s future, why potentially stall her in a failed Veep run?

3. Mike Huckabee. Ugh, I personally despise Huckabee and if he is the Veep choice there is no way I am voting for McCain. nevertheless, Huckabee would not be a bad choice for McCain. He would solidify the evangelical vote in the South which may be needed if Obama chooses a moderate Southern Democrat (like Jim Webb). The South is wary of McCain and Romney wouldn’t help there either. Additionally, he is polling the best of all potential Veep options and could help deliver Iowa to McCain.

He has strong negatives though as well. He is divisive in the GOP. His economic populism is despised by fiscal and economic conservatives and he would not help in the least in delivering moderates to McCain; much of the American public views him as almost a Christian radical.

4. Bobby Jindal. Bobby is the current Governor of Louisiana and, much like Palin, is very anti-corruption and has cleaned up notoriously corrupt Louisiana. He gets a lot press right now and is very popular in the GOP. He IS the future of the GOP and a bright future that is. His only negative is his lack of experience.

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He would excite the base as well and could bring in a good number of moderates and democrats. He is young and competent and would be a fine choice. Additionally, he is a minority (Indian descent) and could possibly offset that advantage for Obama (though minimally at best.

However McCain MUST NOT choose Jindal. Louisiana needs him now and for the next 4-8 years. The GOP needs him in the future. In 2012, look for a Jindal v. Palin race for the GOP nominee for the Presidency.

5. Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota. He is a great and popular governor and could deliver Minnesota for the GOP, a huge deal that would be. He also has been a staunch supporter of McCain’s, even through McCain’s collapse last year and McCain loves loyalty.

However, he does little to exite anybody and, while he has no real downside, he won’t help either. He would be a ho-hum pick. However, like Jindal and Palin, he has a potentially bright future in the GOP.

Others under consideration:

Mark Sanford, Georgia.
Meg Whitman, former CEO of Google
Charlie Crist, Florida
Fred Thompson
Condoleeza Rice
General Petraeus
Kay Baily Hutchison
Rudy Giuliani

All in all there are some great options for McCain. Palin may be the best overall choice, due to her lack of major negatives. But Mitt Romney is what McCain and the country needs. What are your thoughts?

Originally posted at swint.instablogs.com.

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The Dream is Over: Clinton Withdraws

Well, Hillary Clinton is reportedly withdrawing from the Democratic race for President, thus ending the most historic nominating season in at least the last 50 years, if not the nation’s history.  The saddest thing of all is that the Dem race will not continue on through the convention in August, and as a result, we will not be able to witness a truly meaningful convention.  Gone are the days when the convention meant something; when delegates would show up and have to be convinced of who to vote for and the nominee was chosen there.  While, I prefer the current process of allowing party voters to choose the nominee, it would be fantastic to see the race head all the way to convention and see real drama there.

So our dream is over.  We now have Barack Obama vs. John McCain.  I may just stay home on election day.  With Barack, I see socialist Europe becoming the norm in America.  A stagnant economy, massive taxes, and more government controls over our lives.  Barack is the most left wing of all the candidates and that will really hinder him in the general.

All that being said, there is still a strange draw about Obama.  Certainly, America needs a fresh, new face in the International Community.  John McCain is anything but new and fresh.  Also, it is healthy for the nation to switch between right and left leadership.  Nevertheless, the likelyhood I will be voting for Barack come November is slim to nil.  I am not a fan of Marxism.

However, things aren’t so kosher McCain either.  With McCain I see the same old.  More war and a worse economy.  For McCain, his choice of veep will mean far more than Barack’s.  McCain needs someone who can draw in a few moderates, help in swing states, and rally the base.  Sarah Palin is the best choice there and would provide McCain the best shot for victory.

A McCain/Palin or McCain/Romney ticket would secure my vote for McCain.  Other than that there are no guarantee’s. (Although I really like Jindal, but he needs to stay in Louisiana and rescue that state.)  McCain/Huckabee is the only ticket that guarantees that I will not vote for McCain and could push me over to Obama.

But what it really comes down to with McCain is that I just have this gut feeling that he would be a bad president and would not help the GOP at all.  I would almost rather suffer through 4 years of a Democrat, even as liberal Obama, than have the GOP further dragged down by McCain and digging the party’s burial site further.  If Obama wins in November in 2012, we Republicans will have a lot of great choices for President, namely: Romney (please oh please), Huckabee (ugh), Pawlenty, Sanford, Crist, and maybe even Petraeus (the only guy who could maybe pull me away from Romney, Jindal, and Palin.   The party would be smart to recognize what would be the long-term benefit for the party is, and I can’t say that is having McCain as President.  But I probably feel this way because I simply don’t like the guy.

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Filed under Conservative, Democrats, Election 2008, John McCain, Liberal, Mitt Romney, Politics, Progress, Progressive, Republicans

The Future of the GOP Race

Well, Florida did not turn out as I had hoped.  For some reason Floridians were duped into thinking that McCain would make the best President.  That is their right and congrats to McCain on his victory.  I will say that I can live with a McCain nomination, more so than a Giuliani or Huckabee one, but he has a lot of convincing to do if he wants me to vote for him in the general.  I just don’t know what kind of job he would actually do as President, I am very concerned about his temperament, especially considering it will be his finger on the button (see my last post regarding a McCain Presidency).

It appears to me that now McCain is all but a shoe in for the GOP.   I am not saying that I have lost favor for Romney, but I am being a realist.  However, all is not lost for the Romney camp or conservative Americans.  It is blatantly clear, hopefully to everyone, that the only candidate that has a remote chance of knocking off McCain in the primaries is Romney.  Huckabee has not shot.  It is also abundantly clear that McCain is loathed by a significant portion of the GOP electorate.  So conservatives should rally behind Mitt and push him through to be McCain.  There are enough of them in the GOP to do this. 

Also, Mitt has the money to compete in more states and places than McCain on Super Tuesday.  Next week, Mitt will Utah, Colorado, and Massachusetts guaranteed.  He also has a good shot to win California.  That is a must win.  Mitt MUST win California.  He also needs to do some campaigning in Minnesota and Illinois, maybe even Missouri.  Those states should be fairly Romney friendly. 

Additionally, Mitt can win in the South, though it will be tough.  He won the evangelical vote in Florida, so it shows that Huckabee is not invincible there.  He just received the backing of a majority of Tennessee legislators.  He may be able to pull a couple of those into his camp. 

The biggest problem is Huckabee, Huckabee will stay in as long as Mitt is remotely viable, because he knows he hurts Mitt.  If Huck were out of the race, like he should be, Mitt would have a much better shot.  Mitt would destroy McCain in a two man race.  Man, I hate Huckabee (at least politically). 

Further, and in a different Region, Mitt can probably win Alaska if he made on short trip up there for a couple hours, they would be thrilled that a candidate remembered them.

Of course all of this is going to be extremely difficult and is highly unlikely, but it can be done and we need to work to make it happen, a lot of people are turned off to McCain and Mitt is our only hope to knock him out.

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Filed under Election 2008, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Politics, Republicans

Contemplating a McCain Presidency

Driving into work this morning I was contemplating the Florida GOP race and its potential ramifications.  It seems apparent to me that if John McCain wins tonight, he is going to end up being the Republican nominee for President.  Then I started thinking about what a McCain Presidency would look like.  What would he do?  How would the country be run? what would our policies be?

Ultimately, I determined that a future under McCain is not so bright, all I see is weak economic policy and more war.  You see, war and military is all McCain knows, that is his forte.  I strongly believe that he, like any President, wants his administration to be important historically and the only way he knows how to do that is through continuing our embroilment (is that a word?) in war.   Essentially, he will be Bush 3.0, but worse.  Personally, I don’t mind President Bush, I don’t think he has been a disaster of a President, in fact I think history will be kind to him.  I see much of President Bush in McCain, except I see a short temper, bitterness, and a lack of economic experience; all things that will make him worse than President Bush. 

Additionally, a McCain presidency would do great harm to the GOP.  He will not excite the GOP base come November nor throughout the next four years.  If he were to win the Presidency, I see him only being a one term President, who would get destroyed by the Democrat in 2012 — the Democrats would likely choose better candidates than divisive Hillary or no-experience Barack (look for Mark Warner of VA if he wins the Senate seat this year).   

There are only three positives I see from a McCain administration: 1. He can work with the Democrats, reaching across the aisle (but so can Mitt). 2. He will likely avoid scandal and represent the U.S. well (but so can Mitt, much better too). 3. His Presidency would mean that Hillary lost. 

As I really try to look at a McCain Presidency as objectively as I know how, I see little reason for optimism.  In fact, I think that an Obama presidency might be better for the country overall; despite the fact that I disagree with him on nearly every bit of his policy and he has no experience, at least he would bring optimism to the office.

This brings me to Mitt.  Mitt Romney, especially as I now sit here and contemplate these things, is head and shoulders above the rest of the candidates for President.   He has been an executive, knows how to reorganize and make beauracracy efficient, he is a fixer, understands the economy and how it works, he surrounds himself with bright competent people who are not afraid to tell him what he needs to hear rather than what he wants to hear.  He would represent the U.S. to the world in a much more positive light (a complete 180 contrast to President Bush).  Mitt is so superior to the other candidates it is laughable.  Of course I am a biased supporter, but that is why I am a supporter of his.  It appears that many GOP voters are slowly starting to realize this, but I fear it will be too late.  If Mitt does not win tonight, it will be highly unlikely that he can win the nomination.  What a shame that will be.

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Filed under Election 2008, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Politics

The Strength of Mitt as a Candidate

If one looks at the adversity that Mitt Romney has had to endure up to this point in the campaign, it is really quite astounding that he is doing so well in the GOP race. Consider the following:

1. Every major GOP candidate has been the media darling except Mitt. Giuliani was propped up by the media last summer, Thompson in the early fall, Huckabee in December, and then McCain from January until now. In each of those ‘movements’ the countervailing force was Mitt Romney.

2. The MSM dislikes Mitt and loves McCain. Rarely do we hear any positive news or opinion about Mitt. This following clip from Mornings with Joe on MSNBC, Joe Scarborough calls out the MSM for their treatment of Mitt. Notice a couple of things, first the lady that Joe is interviewing does not deny that there is a media bias. Second, notice that she buys the ‘flip-flopping’ image hook, line, and sinker without pointing out that McCain has been just as ingenuous on immigration and tax reform. Third, Scarborough makes a very compelling case that there is indeed this bias and uses real examples as evidence rather than shallow rhetoric. I would love to hear your thoughts on this. (H/T Race42008)

3. McCain and Huckabee can’t stand Mitt and are in obvious collusion to take him down. Did any of you see the wink that Huck threw McCain during the first of the two New Hampshire debates before the primary? This brings me back to media coverage, we always hear about Mitt “going negative” yet, among the three of them, Mitt is the only one who has not thrown personal attacks and the media conveniently fails to point out that McCain was airing negative ads against Mitt in NH as well. Further, Rudy and Thompson have had a history of attacking Mitt, all the while letting McCain slide by, although their actions have been quite mild.

So it appears to me that Mitt has everyone other than conservative talk radio against him. It is most impressive that he is maintaining his strong position while most of the other candidates and the media are ganging up on him. I am certain that McCain and Huckabee can’t stand Mitt and that is the reason they attack him and I think the reason the MSM is always on the attack against Mitt or simply downplays things that go well for him is because they view him as the toughest general election candidate, despite current poll numbers that mean absolutely nothing. If Mitt can withstand this full frontal assault and win the GOP nomination, it will show tremedous ability and savvy. It will only strengthen Mitt as a candidate and should strike fear in the Democrats. It is always a wise decision for we conservatives to back the candidate that the media despises the most, remember 9 in 10 of them are Dems, so if they are pushing one of our guys, that must not be a good thing.

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Filed under Election 2008, John McCain, Media, Mitt Romney, Politics, Republicans