Tag Archives: Florida

Contemplating a McCain Presidency

Driving into work this morning I was contemplating the Florida GOP race and its potential ramifications.  It seems apparent to me that if John McCain wins tonight, he is going to end up being the Republican nominee for President.  Then I started thinking about what a McCain Presidency would look like.  What would he do?  How would the country be run? what would our policies be?

Ultimately, I determined that a future under McCain is not so bright, all I see is weak economic policy and more war.  You see, war and military is all McCain knows, that is his forte.  I strongly believe that he, like any President, wants his administration to be important historically and the only way he knows how to do that is through continuing our embroilment (is that a word?) in war.   Essentially, he will be Bush 3.0, but worse.  Personally, I don’t mind President Bush, I don’t think he has been a disaster of a President, in fact I think history will be kind to him.  I see much of President Bush in McCain, except I see a short temper, bitterness, and a lack of economic experience; all things that will make him worse than President Bush. 

Additionally, a McCain presidency would do great harm to the GOP.  He will not excite the GOP base come November nor throughout the next four years.  If he were to win the Presidency, I see him only being a one term President, who would get destroyed by the Democrat in 2012 — the Democrats would likely choose better candidates than divisive Hillary or no-experience Barack (look for Mark Warner of VA if he wins the Senate seat this year).   

There are only three positives I see from a McCain administration: 1. He can work with the Democrats, reaching across the aisle (but so can Mitt). 2. He will likely avoid scandal and represent the U.S. well (but so can Mitt, much better too). 3. His Presidency would mean that Hillary lost. 

As I really try to look at a McCain Presidency as objectively as I know how, I see little reason for optimism.  In fact, I think that an Obama presidency might be better for the country overall; despite the fact that I disagree with him on nearly every bit of his policy and he has no experience, at least he would bring optimism to the office.

This brings me to Mitt.  Mitt Romney, especially as I now sit here and contemplate these things, is head and shoulders above the rest of the candidates for President.   He has been an executive, knows how to reorganize and make beauracracy efficient, he is a fixer, understands the economy and how it works, he surrounds himself with bright competent people who are not afraid to tell him what he needs to hear rather than what he wants to hear.  He would represent the U.S. to the world in a much more positive light (a complete 180 contrast to President Bush).  Mitt is so superior to the other candidates it is laughable.  Of course I am a biased supporter, but that is why I am a supporter of his.  It appears that many GOP voters are slowly starting to realize this, but I fear it will be too late.  If Mitt does not win tonight, it will be highly unlikely that he can win the nomination.  What a shame that will be.

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Filed under Election 2008, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Politics

So Much for the Straight-Talk Express

Over the last week John McCain has lied twice about two significant issues, the first is about his comment that he knows less about the economy than other issues. The second was a blatant out and out lie claiming that Mitt Romney supported a timetable for troop withdrawal from Iraq.

The economy issue is one that he could have easily avoided looking like a fool on, it was a tough spot to be in, but there had to be a better way to work his way around that question without blatantly lying to the American people. Here is a creative video of McCain vs Mitt on economics that highlights McCains lie.

 

The more disturbing issue is that McCain claimed that Mitt supported a timetable for troop withdrawal in Iraq. Romney never did anything of the sort. What Mitt said was that there should be timetables and benchmarks established for progress and goals within both Iraq’s political and security structure. Basically, Mitt was simply following what anyone does who sets goals, they determine a time for which it is expected to be fulfilled. This is hardly a timetable for pulling out of Iraq, like McCain claimed. So after Mitt called McCain out for lying and asked for an apology, McCain did what he does best, plays the “defending the troops” card and said that he would not apologize but in fact Mitt should apologize for letting down our troops and military. Fortunately, some of the MSM, who has been all ga-ga over McCain for the last two months are finally critizicing him for this latest falsehood:

 

What is the most frustrating about this is that McCain has run his campaign claiming to be the honest politician, the one with the straight talk. McCain has criticized Mitt for running a negative campaign far more than any other pol out there, despite the fact that all Mitt has done is run policy comparative ads stating the opponents position. At no time has Mitt lied about McCain (or Huckabee’s) positions, nor has Mitt attacked either of them personally. On the other hand, McCain continually lies about Mitt and attacks him personally, such as when he called Mitt a pig back in New Hampshire. Yet the media conveniently ignores those attacks, and buys the “Mitt is negative” propaganda hook, line, and sinker. It is disgusting.

A McCain victory in Florida and for the GOP nomination would only validate the inherent strength of the Media. His whole resurgence was media made and the American people are sheep for buying into it. No candidate has had to endure the attacks and adversity that Mitt has had to in this Presidential cycle, yet he is one of the two finalists for the GOP nod. If Mitt wins the nom, it will be with no thanks to anyone besides himself and his campaign.

Shame on McCain.

 

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Filed under Election 2008, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Politics, Republicans

GOP Race, One week out

Well, I don’t know about you, but I cannot remember crazier primary race than the one going on right now.    I for one figured that by the time Iowa rolled around it would be down to a two man race, three at the most.  I thought Huckabee would still be in, but not “in”.   I thought McCain would stay dead.  I thought Giuliani would be making a push in New Hampshire and in second in Iowa. And I thought Romney would still be dominating Iowa.  About the only two things that turned out the way I thought was that Fred Thompson would fade and that Romney would come back to the pack in New Hampshire.

Well, now that I have sufficiently demonstrated how inept I am (although in my defense I did nail the predictions-including the margin of victory-at the Ames straw poll,  and everyone was completely off on their predictions, so I am not alone).  Allow me to give a quick run down of the current state of the race and make some predictions that are sure to be wrong.  First the candidates:

1. Mitt Romney.  I rank Mitt #1 because he has the most paths to the nomination.  He could lose IA, win NH, win MI.  He could win IA, lose NH, win MI.  He could lose both IA and NH, win WY and MI.  Or he could win IA.  Two things I tend to strongly believe, however,  First, if he wins IA, he wins the nomination.  Second if he loses IA, Michigan is a MUST win.  

All this being said, Mitt is still a wild card even if he loses MI.  He has the money and organization to compete in later states.  But I wouldn’t give him much of a shot.

2. John McCain.  I can’t believe I am ranking him second. But this is what I see.  I think a solid 3rd place finish for him in Iowa will be treated by the media as a win; much like Huckabee’s second in straw poll.  If he wins NH, he will have a good shot at MI.  Voters know him, for good and bad, and that will prove to be a positive thing for him.  They also know that he is considered the most electable, and in a group of candidates that no one can decide on, it may come down to who can actually win.  

Additionally, McCain has two scenarios for the nomination.  If he wins NH, he will be in a good spot.  But he could lose the first two and still win the nod, here’s how: A solid 3rd in IA (with Huck winning), propels him to a close 2nd place loss to Mitt in NH, say 1-3 point loss.  The media will rave about the resurgent McCain.  This “mo” leads him to a win in Michigan and on to the nomination.  I think this scenario is HIGHLY unlikely, but it is plausible.

3. Mike Huckabee.  Mike has only one scenario: Win IOWA.  A win in Iowa may be enough to keep him afloat into South Carolina.  A win there and he could sweep the southern states, including Florida.  If he does this, he could be the guy.  He is leading nationally now and leads in a lot of states. But that lead is contigent on Iowa.

However, Iowa is going to be a tough victory.  He has to contend with Mitt’s superior organization, which some pontificators argue gives Mitt an additional 5% to the current polls.  If Mitt draws closer, say within 3-4 points, a victory for Huck will be very difficult.  Not only that, but Huckabee has become the most divisive candidate in the party.  A win in Iowa will only strengthen the voices of opposition, it will be difficult to win SC without winning or placing in NH, WY, or MI and while facing a barrage of attacks from many conservatives. 

It should be noted that McCain and Huckabee’s rankings are almost interchangeable.

4. Rudy Giuliani.  His collapse has been astounding and incredibly quiet.  The most news he has received in December is about a hospital stay.   Rudy has gone all in in Florida.  A loss there and he is done.  He may still pull a few states out on Feb 5th, but one of those won’t be California. 

The problem Rudy has in Florida is that he is flailing there also.  Huckabee is surging and Mitt is right there as well.  I just don’t see Rudy being able to hang on in Florida after placing 3rd or worse in the first 6 contests.

This being said, Rudy has the most room for improvement, check back in a month and don’t be surprised if he is up to 2nd. 

5. Ron Paul.  That’s right, not Fred.  Why?  Neither is going to win a state, but with Ron’s grassroots support and huge financial advantage, don’t be surprised if he pulls out 4th in Iowa and 3rd in New Hampshire.  Ultimately, it doesn’t mean anything, except that he is in a better position than Fred.  At least Ron has the money for an independent run in ’08.

6. Fred Thompson.  Has there been a more disappointing candidate in the race?  While he may have some good ideas, they certainly aren’t his (at least that’s my perception).  Fred feels like a complete puppet to me.  His wife wants victory more than him.  He was coaxed into the race by a bunch of GOPers who saw him as a shoe in because he talks slow, has an accent, and is an actor.  

The only shot Fred has is with a third place finish in Iowa and he needs to pray that the media plays that up.  But even so, if there are only two tickets out of New Hampshire, he won’t have one of them.

So here are my state by state predictions through Jan 19th:

Iowa: 1. Huckabee (as of today) 2. Mitt 3. McCain 4. Fred 5. Paul 6. Rudy

WY: 1. Mitt 2. Huck 3. McCain 4. Paul 5. Fred 6. Rudy 

NH: 1. Mitt 2. McCain 3. Rudy 4. Huck 5. Paul 6. Fred

MI: 1. Mitt 2. McCain 3. Huck 4. Rudy 5. Paul 6. Fred

SC: 1. Huck 2. Mitt 3. Fred 4. McCain 5. Rudy 6. Paul

NV: 1. Mitt 2. McCain 3. Rudy 4. Huck 5. Paul 6. Fred

And if it plays out like that:

FL: 1. Mitt 2. Huck 3. Rudy 4. McCain

And Mitt is your nominee. 

P.S.  This outlook will probably change tomorrow. 

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Filed under Election 2008, Politics, Republicans