In the race for the GOP Presidential nomination there are two real frontrunners and three nipping at the formers’ heels. It certainly appearst that either Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney are going to be the Republican nominee. In the comments section of an article on Race42008, there is an interesting discussion going on about the respective strategies for winning the nomination of both Rudy and Mitt.
Rudy’s strategy is a national one. He views February 5th as a national primary; a day in which truly significant states with large numbers of delegates are voting. Ultimately Rudy’s plan is now to win Florida on January 29th to give him momentum and to ride the wave into a sweep of California, Texas, New Jersey, and New York (among others).
On the other hand, Mitt’s strategy is of a more traditional nature. He believes that victories in the early states are essential. Victories in Iowa and New Hampshire will propel him to victories in Wyoming, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina. He is further betting on this momentum to improve his standing nationally and to propel him to a win in Florida and, thus, a sweep in February.
So ultimately the race comes down to Florida. Or so it is being argued on Race42008, some Rudy supporters are even slyly implying that Giuliani has all but conceded Iowa and New Hampshire to Romney. Ultimately, like any race, it is a question of momentum and movement.
So considering all of this, I wondered what the polls are saying in regards to this momentum and movement. Below are charts of polling in various states, what patterns do you see that are consistent throughout? (For larger charts visit Pollster.com)
Rudy= Purple, Mitt=Brown, McCain=Orange, Thompson=Blue, Huckabee=Green, Paul=Red
What are the consistencies? In every poll Romney is moving up and Rudy is either stale or going down. Let’s look at Florida, as this is seems to be the key state, Rudy is taking a huge dive there and Romney is moving up fast. Couple this is with Thompson’s dying campaign and momentum from likely victories in earlier states, and Mitt’s prospects for winning Florida sure look good.
Of course, a lot can happen in two months, however it sure seems to me that Romney has the smartest strategy to the nomination, despite Rudy’s seeming front runner status in national polls and from the MSM. Trends tell a lot, and the trends don’t look good for Rudy, they look great for Mitt.