Yesterday ARG released Presidential polls from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. For the first time, Mitt Romney leads in all three.
Iowa: Romney-27, Huckabee-19, Giuliani-16, McCain-14, Thompson-8
New Hampshire: Romney-30, Giuliani-23, McCain-17, Huckabee-7, Thompson-5
South Carolina: Romney-29, Giuliani-23, McCain-13, Thompson-10, Huckabee-5
Now, allow me to point out that ARG is less than perfect and I have been extremely critical of their polls in the past. So, I am skeptical of these results, but they are telling. If indeed these are even somewhat reliable they tell the following story:
First, the Mormon issue is becoming less and less of an issue and the evangelical endorsements helped Romney in SC and did not hurt him in NH.
Second, Thompson is in deep, deep trouble. Running 4th in South Carolina??? Likely not accurate, however this is demonstrative of Thompson’s continued slide and loss of favor. He’s done.
Third, Huckabee has a real shot in Iowa, if he can pull off a victory there or at least a solid 2nd place, it could indeed propel him to a win in South Carolina. A state that would prefer to vote for a Southerner.
Fourth, Giuliani, while still strong, looks to have leveled off and will likely not break 25% in any of the states. Bad news for him. It appears that in these three states, the first to get to 30% will win.
Fifth, despite his low national polling, Romney is demonstrating that when the voters get to know him, they like him and are inclined to vote for him.
Here is my Presidential rankings (not personal favorites, but likelyhood to win the nomination):
1. Mitt Romney – Early states mean much, much more than national polls. The question is, is will these early wins be able to propel him in California, Texas and Florida? The big wigs.
2. Rudy Giuliani – Big lead nationally, can he translate that to early states? He is starting to realize that he needs to win early and is putting his chips on New Hampshire. Condensed primary schedule may help him hold onto large Super-duper Tuesday states (CA, TX, NJ, NY) and he has a legitimate shot to win the nomination, without winning any of the traditional big 3.
3. Mike Huckabee – Yes, folks, you read that right. Why is he third? Because he is the only other candidate that has a shot at winning a State. If Huck wins Iowa, he will finish top 3 in other states leading up to South Carolina. Will an Iowa victory and strong showing in New Hampshire or Michigan give him a win in South Carolina? If so, it is now a three man race. All of this is a long shot, but not out of the realm of possibility
4. John McCain– A second place finish in New Hampshire may revive his candidacy. He is already improving nationally and is back to being the candidate he was in 2000. He has a slim shot, but I would say he is all but done.
5. Fred Thompson – He has been more than a disappointment on the campaign trail. The only sign of life he has shown was at the debate. His campaign appearances have been dismal and people realize his boat is a sinking one. You heard it here first: FRED THOMPSON WILL NOT WIN SOUTH CAROLINA. In fact, I will be so bold as to predict he finishes third there; and this will be his highest finish. Fortunately, he doesn’t even want to be President so no skin off of his back. ((Why would you vote for someone who doesn’t want it, Thompson supporters?))
Finally, only three of these candidates can beat Hillary: Romney, Giuliani, and McCain. Thompson does not have the work ethic and Huckabee is too nice (does that make sense?).
My Dry Fly 
My sentiments exactly. Although unfortunately I think you give Huckabee too much credit and Thompson too little.
But I do hope you are correct. The prospect of these things coming to pass makes me very happy.
I agree with your assessment of the candidates. Thompson has been irritating from the beginning when he kept holding out trying to get big poll numbers. Romney has been the biggest surprise to me personally, I didn’t think he had a snowballs chance in hell. Now he’s is in a very comfortable position in IA and NH, this could get interesting. Gulliani is irritating because he seems to think that people will vote for him just because he was the mayor of NY. The sad thing is I think he may be right. I think John McCain has the has the best shot at beating Hillary, who I believe will win the Democratic nomination, because he would appeal to the centrists and some of the more liberal Democrats as well and hard line Republicans will vote for him just because they don’t want Hillary, or any Democrat, in the White house. If Gulliani wins the nomination socially conservative Republicans won’t vote for him, but perhaps he can make that up with a strong centrist vote and a fair liberal vote, thus taking some of Hillary’s votes. If Romney wins the nomination some social conservatives will vote for him, but others won’t, centrist may be split and liberals will definitely not vote for him. Because he has no appeal to liberals and a split appeal among conservatives I think he would loose against Hillary unless the social conservatives vote against Hillary by voting for Romney which may be what he is counting on.
“You heard it here first: FRED THOMPSON WILL NOT WIN SOUTH CAROLINA.”
Here’s something that I won’t be the first nor the last to tell you.
YOU’RE AN IDIOT!
Barry Bonds:
Were you looking in the mirror when you made that remark?
I posted the following at another blog on the 6th of July of ‘o7. We’ll see how well it plays out in the following 13 months:
“Good comments all around. The electorate is not yet involved in the ’08 election for president ’cause everybody’s too busy with a booming economy. Iraqis are slowly turning on al Qaida which will result in an acceptable victory for the US as troops pull out before the election, leaving a fledgling democracy for those that are still alive. Politicians on both sides of the isle have alienated their political bases–the Dems because they’re captive to the far left and the Repubs because they’ve turned into fiscal liberals. Both parties are fragmenting as they abandon the electorate. The election will heat up this coming winter, when voters will grudgingly select an outsider as the only possible hope, so anyone who has been a US senator is doomed. Thompson is delaying announcement because of a closet full of questionable experience, while Rudy is tough on A Ron Paul or Mike Bloomberg election? No, while many might be enamored by their ideas, they are still considered to be political lightweights. With terrorism still the #1 consideration on the electorate’s mind, followed by fiscal responsibility and the twin pariahs of energy and health care, principles of leadership will be the determining factor. Eliminating the corruption and excesses of the past will steer the election’s outcome to Romney, who decimates the competition with a firm vision of the future. Washington needs a good housecleaning by an outsider, and Romney has the guts to do it.”
So far, so good!
Rockyspoon:
Amen !!
Barry Bonds,
Indeed, your not the first nor the last, sadly.
I have to disagree on Romney. I do think centrists will vote for him. Quite handedly over Hillary Clinton, as well. Number one, Romney’s looks will help seal up the female centrists. There’s no doubt it helped Kennedy. No doubt it helped Clinton. And frankly, a squeaky-clean, successful, energetic guy like Romney will real them in. That would hurt Hillary badly, as she’s far more popular with women than men.
I also think that Romney is the practical choice in all of this. When you look at his track record of success, he’s lived the life of the consummate executive. He’s guided organization after organization from the brink of failure and into the red. A venture capitalist in the White House sounds pretty darn good, frankly.
And it’s not just that Romney’s positions have been conservative. There were more conservative candidates in the race, but they never caught on. Hunter and Tancredo, for instance. Granted, yes, both congressmen. But Romney is a likeable guy in the end. He’s put together, extremely efficient, can crack a joke, and can speak off the cuff. On top of that, he out-hustles the entire field, both Democrat and Republican. I really think he’s going to be our guy when it’s all said and done. And I think the Republicans may end up sitting prettier than they’d ever thought in 2008. We shall see…
If Republicans are going to rely on Romney’s good looks to get him in the white house they must really be desperate.
I don’t think any of the Republican candidates can win in 2008. Republicans have been in charge for 8 years and done more harm than good. They are spending out of control, got us into a war that we should not be in and effectively alienated us from the rest of the world. Frankly, I think even Republicans are sick of Republicans and their lack of adherence to the values that they subscribe to. Because of this disillusionment, Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States. Many Republicans will not vote because they are disgusted with how their party has behaved and this will give the Democrats the edge they need. Remember the last two votes have been extremely close. Morale amongst Republicans is at an all time low and this will be reflected when voting time comes unless the Republican candidate slam dunks Hillary in debates and that won’t be easy.
Swint:
You’re an idiot.
I just thought I’d jump on the bandwagon 🙂
Why do we care the Fred Thompson isn’t going to win? I didn’t think he was officially running yet.