Great news for the Romney camp today. According to an ARG poll, Mitt has opened up a 26 point lead in Michigan! Who would have thought?
While this is great for the campaign and demonstrates Romney’s continued claim of being the GOP front runner, let’s not get too excited yet. I get the sense this could be another “California blunder” from when Datamar gave Romney a 17 point lead there. First, ARG is notoriously out of step with the other polling agencies. A couple of weeks ago in both New Hampshire and Iowa, ARG reported that Giuliani took a one point lead, while every other previously released poll by other pollsters were giving Mitt a solid 9-10 point lead. After that ARG poll was released, those other polls showed Mitt jumping to a 13-20 point lead. So ARG is sketchy at best.
Despite this I have the utmost confidence that Mitt will win Michigan and win it big. He grew up there, his father was a popular governor there, and he has the best organization in the state. So, as of now, revel in this poll, but be skeptical. I would bet that in the next poll by some other pollster, Romney will have around a 3-7 point lead. Nothing comfortable yet, but getting there. But I’ll settle for a 26 point lead for now.