Mitt’s Ames Bump

Coming out of the Ames straw poll last week, it seemed that Mitt had earned the sort of victory that was sufficient, but would have a minimal effect. It looked as though Huckabee was the big winner of all the candidates. After a week of analysis and watching the polls, however, it seems that the impact of Romney’s 13 point victory was underestimated by nearly everyone except the Romney campaign. In fact since Ames he has seen an extensive jump in the polls across the nation. (Rankings are in parentheses, only shows leader and Mitt)

Pre-Ames National:
CNN: (1) Giuliani-27 (4) Romney-11
Cook: (1) Giuliani-26 (5) Romney-7
Newsweek: (1) Giuliani-30 (4) Romney-10

Post-Ames National:
Rasmussen (1) Giuliani-22 (3) Romney 15
Gallup (1) Giuliani-32 (3) Romney 14
Rasmussen (1) Giuliani-24 (3) Romney 16
Quinnipiac (1) Guiuliani-28 (2) Romney 15

Quinnipiac (1) Giuliani-26 (4) Romney-9
Rasmussen (1) Giuliani-30 (3) Romney-15

Mason-Dixon (1)Thompson-(25) (2) Romney-20
Research 2000 (2) Thompson-18 (1) Romney-28

In each of the polls cited Romney has increased by at 4 points and moved up at least one spot in that polls rankings. Looking at the latest Rasmussen national poll, Romney has even pulled within 7 points against the much better known Giuliani.

While all of these numbers show that he still has a lot of work to do to catch Giuliani, the fact that Mitt is closing the gap and holds commanding leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire demonstrates that the race has practically become a 2-way between Giuliani and Romney, with Thompson and Huckabee the wild cards.

The next 5 months will be very interesting and exciting indeed.


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Filed under Conservative, Democracy, Democrats, Election 2008, Fred Thompson, Liberal, Liberalism, McCain, Media, Mitt Romney, Mormon, Politics, Progress, Progressive, Republicans, Romney, Rudy Giuliani

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