11 Day’s Out, It’s All Over

It is probably a bit pre-mature, but the presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain might as well be over.  I have been contemplating writing this post for the last two weeks, but haven’t been convinced.  Well, today I am.  We are 11 days out of the election, less than two weeks and Barack’s lead is anywhere between 3 points and 11 points nationally, he is safely winning all the states that Kerry won in ’04, is comfortably ahead in a few states that Bush won in ’04, and is within the margin of error (+/-) in many states that have gone GOP in the past few elections.   There is not one state that Kerry won, even those considered “swing” states, that McCain has a chance to win. Don’t believe me?  Let’s review two “blue swing states”: Minnesota: O=56%, M=41% – 15 point lead and Pennsylvania: O= 51%, M= 41% – 10 point lead. Ouch!

Every “swing-state” is a state that went Red in ’04 and some should be solidly red. McCain is struggling mightily in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, and Colorado. Even in states like North Dakota and Montana there has been talk of Barack making a push. Are you kidding? McCain is entirely playing defense and no offense. This is not a winning strategy, in order to win the election he will pretty well have to win each of these states; at most he could lose one of them and perhaps still pull out the win. That is not going to happen.

So why is it so bad? Well, the first reason is the economy. People blame the Bush administration and by default McCain. They shouldn’t (solely) blame either. Blame falls on everyone, but especially congressional democrats who refused to address the mortgage issue when GOP congressmen were warning of an inevitable collapse. But Democrats disagreed and said the system was good because it was getting poor people into home ownership. Well we have seen how well that worked out. But McCain has failed to get that message out, he has failed to spread the word that he called for an investigation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 2 years ago. Sure much of this is the media’s fault as they refuse to seriously cover any news that may harm Obama (just look at how they have ignored the Ayers story, if that were reversed and McCain were the culprit, McCain would have been crucified). But it is also McCain’s fault. He has been awful getting information out and going on the attack. I know he doesn’t prefer that kind of politics, but it is necessary for important issues. Sarah Palin has been effective, but what can a veep do?

The other reason that McCain is losing so bad is that he is a terrible, terrible candidate. What were the GOP thinking nominating this guy. I still don’t know anyone who actually wants HIM to be President. Most people are voting for him because they don’t want Obama or because they like Palin. McCain is a terrible speaker, has no energy, doesn’t have much a platform and no message, and isn’t terribly intelligence (I am not saying he is dumb, but he is no smarter than the average American). If the GOP had nominated Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani we would probably winning or tied with Obama. The only serious GOP candidate that would have been a bigger disaster is Mike Huckabee.

A friend of mine made a great point the other day, as he has paid attention to the campaign he hears Obama speak and notices that Obama has a message. It may not be a message of much substance, but he has a message and sticks to it. That is change and hope and when he discusses his specific policy ideas he ties them all into change and hope. When he hears McCain there is no message. McCain is all over the map. Thus, there is nothing memorable about McCain, there is not one thing where people can think of McCain and think of him as President. His advisors have not handled him well. Both Karl Rove and James Carville admitted that in their elections as advisors to Bush and Clinton respectively, one of their most important responsibilities were to keep the candidate on message. Remember people don’t care about policy and specific ideas they care about what ever candidate makes them feel good, moves them, and builds trust. That’s largely it. McCain hasn’t done it in the least.

The silver lining to all of this for me is that I can’t stand either candidate. I am voting for McCain, but while holding my nose. On Tuesday night, November 4th, when CNN announces that they project Barack Obama as the next President of the United States at 9:42 pm EST (before the polls even close in the West), I will shrug my shoulders, go back to watching “Scrubs” and begin fasting and praying that the American people, and especially GOP voters, will be smart enough to nominate Mitt Romney in 2012. I still can’t believe that the GOP was stupid enough nominate McCain over Romney, amazing.

Barack is Right, but He Should Have Known Better

It is no secret that I am no fan of Barack Obama, but generally speaking I agree with him that this whole Pig comment thing should not really be a controversy.

For those of you who are not familiar with the controversy overtaking the United States, in a speech about economics yesterday, Barack Obama said, “You can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig.” At first glance most anyone who has been following Sarah Palin and the election could understand how one would think this was a slam against Palin. But when one reads the context for which the comment was made it is clear that he was referring to Bush’s and McCain’s generally similar economic plans. Essentially he said that McCain can talk about change all he wants, referring to the economy, but “You can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig.” And then he added, immediately following that line, “You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called ‘change,’ it’s still going to stink.”

Was it a slight at Palin (referring to the lipstick)? Maybe. Was it a slight at McCain (referring to the ‘old fish’)? Maybe so. I kind of think it was meant to be a subtle jab, but I don’t put much stock into the whole controversy, those phrases were reasonable for the topic to which he was speaking and it probably shouldn’t be the issue it is.

But this politics. Anything one says can be and will be used against the candidate. I find it really disingenuous that Barack is criticizing the McCain camp for using this for political gain, as both parties take statements out of context, just as ridiculous as this, all of the time. Obama and his advisors should have known this and should have known better.

So while I think there is no merit to the attack from the GOP, Barack should have been smarter than this. And it demonstrates his political newness. You see, the most memorable line from Sarah Palin’s speech at the GOP convention was, “What is the difference between a pit bull and soccer mom? Lipstick”. As a result, anytime anyone hears the word lipstick, for whatever reason, voters are immediately going to associate that comment with Sarah Palin. If you think I am wrong, just watch the below video of Barack’s comments and pay attention to the crowd’s response when he says the lipstick line.

That kind of response would not occur in normal circumstances, the people there immediately associated the comment with Sarah Palin. Barack and his advisors should have been aware of this. And making a comment like that, regardless of its innocence and in a climate where Palin is ridiculously popular and any negativity against her that seems remotely unfair only results in increasing her popularity, is a stupid move.

You see, in this election people don’t care about policy. I think most people who have been following the election since the beginning of the primary season were well aware of this. It is about being a fixer and having a responsible leader. Most voters are fickle and fairly ignorant anyway. They don’t want to hear the nuts and bolts of welfare reform or economic policy, they want to be comfortable, safe, and feel like their President is someone they can feel safe with while the sleep. That’s it. So little lapses of judgement like this, by either candidate, is what matters. Because this is the stuff voters pay attention to. Personally, I think it is ridiculous, but it is the nature of the democratic process, at least in this election. And this is why I think McCain will ultimately win. He generally knows how to avoid these mistakes and will make fewer of them than Barack. Game over.

The Palin Bounce

If one poll is to be believed, then at the outset, McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin was ingenious. In the polls conducted during and just after the Democratic Convention, Barack Obama went from a tie with McCain to a solid 6-8 point lead in the polls.

Obviously it was McCain’s intention to stifle this bounce by announcing his running mate the day after the DNC ended. Most figured McCain’s choice would be anti-climatic, at least I did. But McCain surprised us all with the potentially race-changing pick of Sarah Palin.

Now the first poll post Palin has been released by Zogby, and the results are staggering. They have McCain/Palin up by 2 points on Obama/Biden. Wow. So, at least at first glance, it appears that not only did McCain successfully halt the convention bounce for Obama, but he received a good 4-8 point bounce himself. Couple this with the GOP Convention coming up and McCain could have a solid 5-9 point lead by next Sunday or Monday. Quite the position for the Republican in this election.

Here are the Zogby International poll results:

McCain/Palin: 47%
Obama/Biden: 45%

“Palin is not to be underestimated. Her real strength is that she is authentic, a real mom, an outdoors person, a small town mayor (hey, she has dealt with a small town city council – that alone could be preparation for staring down Vladimir Putin, right?). She is also a reformer.” “A very important demographic in this election is going to be the politically independent woman, 15% of whom in our latest survey are undecided.”

“In the final analysis, this election will be about Obama vs. McCain. Obama has staked out ground as the new JFK – a new generation, literally and figuratively, a new face of America to the world, a man who can cross lines and work with both sides. But McCain is the modern day Harry Truman – with lots of DC experience, he knows what is wrong and dysfunctional with Washington and how to fix it, and he has chosen a running mate who is about as far away from Washington as he could find.

“This contest is likely to be very close until the weekend before the election – then the dam may break and support may flood one way or the other.”

It will certainly be interesting to see what will happen, we have a long way to go and the race will be up and down and there will be an October surprise, but up to this point I don’t think the race could be more intriguing. But if the Democrats lose in November they may have to disband as a party. To lose in an environment this anti-Republican would be nothing short of disasterous.

I originally posted this article at instablogs.com.

Vice President Sarah Palin?

According to at least Fox News, backstage sources are saying the Vice Presidential pick for John McCain is Sarah Palin. If so, this is a fantastic pick.

Sarah Palin is the current Governor of Alaska, a mid-40’s female, very attractive, a solid conservative, though environmental minded, and anti-corruption. She would be the best pick for McCain.

What Palin does for the ticket is soothes over conservatives who are concerned about McCain’s moderate stances, wins over many female Hillary supporters who are currently undecided, and potentially brings in the “Soccer Moms”. She is one of only two GOP potential veep selections that can get any where near Obama in terms of exciting the American people (the other being Bobby Jindal). So if this is indeed the pick look for McCain to 1. stifle any bump that Obama got from the convention. I am now fully behind McCain/Palin this year.

BREAKING- The campaign just confirmed the choice according to FoxNews!

Top 5 McCain VEEP Options

The VEEP choice for John McCain will mean more for him than will Obama’s. John McCain needs to choose someone who can rally the base of the GOP, attract (or at least not scare off) Hillary voters who have been turned off by Obama, is strong where he is weak, can be President in the event McCain dies (his age is an issue), and can potentially help deliver “battle-ground” states.

His five best options are:

1. Mitt Romney. While Mitt does not accomplish all the criteria above, he covers more than any other. First, he has become popular with the GOP base, and while evangelicals don’t like him, it is unlikely, his presence results in a McCain loss in the South.

Mitt also is an economic genius, whereas McCain has readily admitted he is weak on economics. McCain could basically just make Mitt the economic Czar. Mitt also can deliver Michigan and New Hampshire (two states Bush lost in ‘04), as well as help the GOP hold onto Nevada and Colorado (due to the significant LDS population). Finally, he is the most qualified Republican for President not named John McCain (though I would personally argue that Mitt would be the best President from either party period, but I digress).

2. Sarah Palin. Who? You ask. Sarah Palin is the 44 year old knock-out, yet ridiculously competent, Governor of Alaska. Sure, Alaska is not a political powerhouse state and she has no more experience than Barack Obama, but her positives are off the chart.

First, she is a solid conservative and extremely anti-corruption. She took on the extremely corrupt and entrenched GOP leadership in Alaska and won. She is an excellent communicator and does not hurt McCain at all.

The best reason for her though is that she would capture the attention of the American, if not the World’s, media and people. She will undoubtedly attract significant swath’s of the female voters that were backing Hillary, despite her conservatism. She can help off-set Obama’s image and help McCain be “younger”.

Her down side is her lack of experience, would she be able to step in as President should McCain not serve all the way through. Also, she is among the leaders of the GOP’s future, why potentially stall her in a failed Veep run?

3. Mike Huckabee. Ugh, I personally despise Huckabee and if he is the Veep choice there is no way I am voting for McCain. nevertheless, Huckabee would not be a bad choice for McCain. He would solidify the evangelical vote in the South which may be needed if Obama chooses a moderate Southern Democrat (like Jim Webb). The South is wary of McCain and Romney wouldn’t help there either. Additionally, he is polling the best of all potential Veep options and could help deliver Iowa to McCain.

He has strong negatives though as well. He is divisive in the GOP. His economic populism is despised by fiscal and economic conservatives and he would not help in the least in delivering moderates to McCain; much of the American public views him as almost a Christian radical.

4. Bobby Jindal. Bobby is the current Governor of Louisiana and, much like Palin, is very anti-corruption and has cleaned up notoriously corrupt Louisiana. He gets a lot press right now and is very popular in the GOP. He IS the future of the GOP and a bright future that is. His only negative is his lack of experience.

He would excite the base as well and could bring in a good number of moderates and democrats. He is young and competent and would be a fine choice. Additionally, he is a minority (Indian descent) and could possibly offset that advantage for Obama (though minimally at best.

However McCain MUST NOT choose Jindal. Louisiana needs him now and for the next 4-8 years. The GOP needs him in the future. In 2012, look for a Jindal v. Palin race for the GOP nominee for the Presidency.

5. Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota. He is a great and popular governor and could deliver Minnesota for the GOP, a huge deal that would be. He also has been a staunch supporter of McCain’s, even through McCain’s collapse last year and McCain loves loyalty.

However, he does little to exite anybody and, while he has no real downside, he won’t help either. He would be a ho-hum pick. However, like Jindal and Palin, he has a potentially bright future in the GOP.

Others under consideration:

Mark Sanford, Georgia.
Meg Whitman, former CEO of Google
Charlie Crist, Florida
Fred Thompson
Condoleeza Rice
General Petraeus
Kay Baily Hutchison
Rudy Giuliani

All in all there are some great options for McCain. Palin may be the best overall choice, due to her lack of major negatives. But Mitt Romney is what McCain and the country needs. What are your thoughts?

Originally posted at swint.instablogs.com.