Obama’s VEEP?

Let’s be honest, this election is the Democratic party’s to lose, specifically Barack Obama. The amazing thing is, it is actually a distinct possibility. The Democrats aren’t very good at choosing “winnable” candidates, but that is a discussion for another day. The topic at hand is who are the Vice Presidential choices for Obama.

Before we get to names, let’s discuss what attribute Obama needs in a running mate. First, Obama needs someone with ridiculous experience. Lack of experience is Obama’s biggest weakness. Also, he needs a person who can keep Clinton’s voters in his camp, who is fairly moderate, and has military or defense credentials.

The other question we need to ask is who is the best veep to help Obama win vs. who is the best veep for the Obama presidency. This is extremely important, as we get into the top choices, here is why:

1. Hillary Clinton. If Obama chooses Hillary as his veep, he is a shoe in for victory in November. He keeps Clinton’s voters in his camp, thus eliminating a huge potential voting block for McCain.

However, in the same way that Hillary would be great for getting him elected, she would be the absolute worst for him personally while he is President. The last thing Obama wants is a Clinton (Hillary or Bill) breathing down his neck saying “well, this is how we did it in the ’90’s”. Obama needs to and must make a complete break from the Clinton’s and begin his own era in the Democratic party. If I am Obama, I take the risk of a loss; there is no way I choose Hillary.

2. Jim Webb, Virginia Senator. He is an extremely popular Senator from a swing state. A state the Dems have an excellent shot of winning and taking from the GOP. He also is a military man and worked in the Reagan administration. He is a moderate Democrat as well.

However, he, like Obama, has very little experience. This could be his death knell. Obama must have an experienced VEEP.

3. Joe Biden, Delaware Senator. He has a ridiculous amount of experience and would actually be a solid President. He also is among the most experience in terms of international affairs. Also, he is a white male (like Webb) and a typical US politician. Usually that is a bad thing, but considering Obama, it might help even out the ticket.

His big weakness however is that he is divisive (the GOP HATES him) and really excites no one.

4. Ed Rendell, Governor of Pennsylvania. He has enough experience and is a governor, thus he has executive experience. Additionally, Pennsylvania is a state that is being targeted by John McCain in November, choosing Rendell would likely keep PA in Dem hands. (Note, there is a rumor that Tom Ridge, the former PA Governor is at the top of the list for McCain’s veep; I think it would be a terrible choice).

5. Gen Wesley Clark. He is a solid Democrat and a former Military general. He could potentially bring in a significant chunk of GOP voters whom don’t like McCain, but are wary of Obama’s defense credentials.

Other possibilities:
- Evan Bayh
- Michael Bloomberg
- Chris Dodd
- Bill Richardson
- Kathleen Sebelius
- John Edwards

One of the positives for Obama as he searches for a Vice President is that his veep choice is less crucial than McCain’s. People are excited about Barack and don’t need as much of a reason to vote for him. On the other hand, I don’t know anyone who is excited about a McCain Presidency. McCain needs to make waves with his veep pick, or at least choose a person that will help voters to logically vote for him.

The stars seem aligned for Obama as of right now. But the GOP was smart and chose the only candidate that could win for their party (which is a sad reality for me to come to, as I have a man-crush on Romney). John McCain has a very real chance to beat Obama, so Obama should not be too comfortable about his chances.

The Dream is Over: Clinton Withdraws

Well, Hillary Clinton is reportedly withdrawing from the Democratic race for President, thus ending the most historic nominating season in at least the last 50 years, if not the nation’s history.  The saddest thing of all is that the Dem race will not continue on through the convention in August, and as a result, we will not be able to witness a truly meaningful convention.  Gone are the days when the convention meant something; when delegates would show up and have to be convinced of who to vote for and the nominee was chosen there.  While, I prefer the current process of allowing party voters to choose the nominee, it would be fantastic to see the race head all the way to convention and see real drama there.

So our dream is over.  We now have Barack Obama vs. John McCain.  I may just stay home on election day.  With Barack, I see socialist Europe becoming the norm in America.  A stagnant economy, massive taxes, and more government controls over our lives.  Barack is the most left wing of all the candidates and that will really hinder him in the general.

All that being said, there is still a strange draw about Obama.  Certainly, America needs a fresh, new face in the International Community.  John McCain is anything but new and fresh.  Also, it is healthy for the nation to switch between right and left leadership.  Nevertheless, the likelyhood I will be voting for Barack come November is slim to nil.  I am not a fan of Marxism.

However, things aren’t so kosher McCain either.  With McCain I see the same old.  More war and a worse economy.  For McCain, his choice of veep will mean far more than Barack’s.  McCain needs someone who can draw in a few moderates, help in swing states, and rally the base.  Sarah Palin is the best choice there and would provide McCain the best shot for victory.

A McCain/Palin or McCain/Romney ticket would secure my vote for McCain.  Other than that there are no guarantee’s. (Although I really like Jindal, but he needs to stay in Louisiana and rescue that state.)  McCain/Huckabee is the only ticket that guarantees that I will not vote for McCain and could push me over to Obama.

But what it really comes down to with McCain is that I just have this gut feeling that he would be a bad president and would not help the GOP at all.  I would almost rather suffer through 4 years of a Democrat, even as liberal Obama, than have the GOP further dragged down by McCain and digging the party’s burial site further.  If Obama wins in November in 2012, we Republicans will have a lot of great choices for President, namely: Romney (please oh please), Huckabee (ugh), Pawlenty, Sanford, Crist, and maybe even Petraeus (the only guy who could maybe pull me away from Romney, Jindal, and Palin.   The party would be smart to recognize what would be the long-term benefit for the party is, and I can’t say that is having McCain as President.  But I probably feel this way because I simply don’t like the guy.

Pray for a NC, IN Split for the Dems

Tomorrow is yet another big day on the wild ride that is the Democratic race for the Presidential nomination.   What a ride it has been and continues to be.  If you are like me, a Republican and always interested in observing history as it happens, you want this to go on as long as possible. And in order for that to happen we need at least a split victory tomorrow.  Fortunately that is looking pretty good.

The most ideal situation would be Hillary blowing out Barack in Indiana, by at least 10 points.  Then have Barack just barely beat Hillary in North Carolina by 1-4 points.   This would continue the rhetoric of late that Barack is choking, thus keeping Hillary in the race, all the while still ensuring that Barack is the most likely nominee.

As long as Hillary thinks there is a chance on earth for her to get the nomination she will stay in.  And because Barack has the easiest path to the nomination there is no way he will drop out before convention.  And convention is what we want.

Sure, having the democratic race go to convention is great for Republicans because it keeps the dems attacking each other and allows the GOP candidate, John McCain (ugh!), to keep his shirt clean and promote a positive message without being attacked by the left.  But that is only a small benefit to me, for I don’t even know if I will vote for McCain in November (don’t worry I am not voting for Barack no matter what!).

The primary reason I want this to go to convention is to witness history. Because of how the nomination process now occurs, this is likely our one and only chance to witness a meaningful convention!  Who wants to miss out on that?  Not I.   If the Dem convention actually means something this year I will tune in and be glued to the TV, I may skip work to watch it.  If it doesn’t go to convention, I won’t watch 30 seconds of it.  So please, please Indiana and North Carolina, keep the dream alive.  Help we American witness history, we will likely never have another chance.

The Future of the GOP Race

Well, Florida did not turn out as I had hoped.  For some reason Floridians were duped into thinking that McCain would make the best President.  That is their right and congrats to McCain on his victory.  I will say that I can live with a McCain nomination, more so than a Giuliani or Huckabee one, but he has a lot of convincing to do if he wants me to vote for him in the general.  I just don’t know what kind of job he would actually do as President, I am very concerned about his temperament, especially considering it will be his finger on the button (see my last post regarding a McCain Presidency).

It appears to me that now McCain is all but a shoe in for the GOP.   I am not saying that I have lost favor for Romney, but I am being a realist.  However, all is not lost for the Romney camp or conservative Americans.  It is blatantly clear, hopefully to everyone, that the only candidate that has a remote chance of knocking off McCain in the primaries is Romney.  Huckabee has not shot.  It is also abundantly clear that McCain is loathed by a significant portion of the GOP electorate.  So conservatives should rally behind Mitt and push him through to be McCain.  There are enough of them in the GOP to do this. 

Also, Mitt has the money to compete in more states and places than McCain on Super Tuesday.  Next week, Mitt will Utah, Colorado, and Massachusetts guaranteed.  He also has a good shot to win California.  That is a must win.  Mitt MUST win California.  He also needs to do some campaigning in Minnesota and Illinois, maybe even Missouri.  Those states should be fairly Romney friendly. 

Additionally, Mitt can win in the South, though it will be tough.  He won the evangelical vote in Florida, so it shows that Huckabee is not invincible there.  He just received the backing of a majority of Tennessee legislators.  He may be able to pull a couple of those into his camp. 

The biggest problem is Huckabee, Huckabee will stay in as long as Mitt is remotely viable, because he knows he hurts Mitt.  If Huck were out of the race, like he should be, Mitt would have a much better shot.  Mitt would destroy McCain in a two man race.  Man, I hate Huckabee (at least politically). 

Further, and in a different Region, Mitt can probably win Alaska if he made on short trip up there for a couple hours, they would be thrilled that a candidate remembered them.

Of course all of this is going to be extremely difficult and is highly unlikely, but it can be done and we need to work to make it happen, a lot of people are turned off to McCain and Mitt is our only hope to knock him out.

Contemplating a McCain Presidency

Driving into work this morning I was contemplating the Florida GOP race and its potential ramifications.  It seems apparent to me that if John McCain wins tonight, he is going to end up being the Republican nominee for President.  Then I started thinking about what a McCain Presidency would look like.  What would he do?  How would the country be run? what would our policies be?

Ultimately, I determined that a future under McCain is not so bright, all I see is weak economic policy and more war.  You see, war and military is all McCain knows, that is his forte.  I strongly believe that he, like any President, wants his administration to be important historically and the only way he knows how to do that is through continuing our embroilment (is that a word?) in war.   Essentially, he will be Bush 3.0, but worse.  Personally, I don’t mind President Bush, I don’t think he has been a disaster of a President, in fact I think history will be kind to him.  I see much of President Bush in McCain, except I see a short temper, bitterness, and a lack of economic experience; all things that will make him worse than President Bush. 

Additionally, a McCain presidency would do great harm to the GOP.  He will not excite the GOP base come November nor throughout the next four years.  If he were to win the Presidency, I see him only being a one term President, who would get destroyed by the Democrat in 2012 — the Democrats would likely choose better candidates than divisive Hillary or no-experience Barack (look for Mark Warner of VA if he wins the Senate seat this year).   

There are only three positives I see from a McCain administration: 1. He can work with the Democrats, reaching across the aisle (but so can Mitt). 2. He will likely avoid scandal and represent the U.S. well (but so can Mitt, much better too). 3. His Presidency would mean that Hillary lost. 

As I really try to look at a McCain Presidency as objectively as I know how, I see little reason for optimism.  In fact, I think that an Obama presidency might be better for the country overall; despite the fact that I disagree with him on nearly every bit of his policy and he has no experience, at least he would bring optimism to the office.

This brings me to Mitt.  Mitt Romney, especially as I now sit here and contemplate these things, is head and shoulders above the rest of the candidates for President.   He has been an executive, knows how to reorganize and make beauracracy efficient, he is a fixer, understands the economy and how it works, he surrounds himself with bright competent people who are not afraid to tell him what he needs to hear rather than what he wants to hear.  He would represent the U.S. to the world in a much more positive light (a complete 180 contrast to President Bush).  Mitt is so superior to the other candidates it is laughable.  Of course I am a biased supporter, but that is why I am a supporter of his.  It appears that many GOP voters are slowly starting to realize this, but I fear it will be too late.  If Mitt does not win tonight, it will be highly unlikely that he can win the nomination.  What a shame that will be.